[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 10N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 01N to 05N, between 17W and
28W. Similar convection is also observed from 02N to 05N,
between 37W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over northern Florida dominates the
weather pattern. Light to gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf.
Winds are moderate elsewhere with southerlies in the western
Gulf and easterlies in the southern Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the
NE Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the southeast U.S.
will shift east overnight ahead of a cold front expected to move
off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Sun morning. The
front will stall over the northwest Gulf but continue across the
northeast Gulf through early Mon. Looking ahead, the front will
stall over the eastern Gulf by early Tue, then dissipate through
Tue night. Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas coast
Wed into Thu. Another front may move off the Texas coast by Thu
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are observed in the NW
Caribbean, off the coast of Belize and Mexico. The gradient
between subtropical high pressure north of the area and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh
easterly winds across the majority of the basin. A localized
area of strong NE winds is noted off the coast of Colombia. Seas
are 7-9 ft in this area of strong winds, 6-8 ft in the remainder
of the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will
continue to support fresh winds south of Cuba, Hispaniola and in
Windward Passage tonight, with fresh to locally strong winds off
the Colombian coast through Sun night. Looking ahead, winds and
seas will diminish over most of the basin Mon through the middle
of next week as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary boundary extends from 31N62W to central Cuba. NW of
the front, winds are gentle to moderate from the north with 3-5
ft seas. SE of the front, winds are gentle to moderate from the
S-E with 4-6 ft seas. A surface trough extends across the Virgin
Islands from 23N63W to 16N65W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed within 120 nm of the trough axis. The remainder of the
basin is dominated by a 1030 mb high centered near 30N35W. North
of 23N, winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. South of
23N, winds are moderate to fresh from the east with 6-9 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from
31N61W SW to central Cuba. The portion of the front N of 25N
will transition back to a cold front tonight and move to the
central Atlantic waters Sun night while the stationary tail end
of the front dissipates. High pressure building behind the front
will support moderate to fresh trade winds into Mon night mainly
south of 22N. Looking ahead, another front will move off the
northeast Florida coast early Mon, then weaken and nearly stall
as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue. A
reinforcing front will move into the region Wed, merge with the
previous front, and reach from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late
Thu.

$$
Flynn
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