[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to
03N20W 04N26W 02N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 08N southward between 10W and 60W.
Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from
10N southward from 60W eastward. High level moisture is being
pushed toward the NE and E, from 10N to 20N from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is within 100 nm of the coast of Mexico
between the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico and
98W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the coastal
waters of Mexico from 24N southward from 90W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Gulf of Mexico. A 1027 mb high pressure center is
along the Alabama/Georgia near 32N. Expect moderate to
locally fresh return flow, and sea heights that range
from 3 feet to 5 feet, in most of the basin. The wind
speeds are light to gentle and variable, and the sea
heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet, near the high
pressure center in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure over the southeast U.S. will shift
east today ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas
coast into the northwest Gulf Sun morning. The front will stall
over the northwest Gulf but continue across the northeast Gulf
through early Mon. Looking ahead, the front will stall over the
eastern Gulf by early Tue, then dissipate through Tue night.
Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas coast by late
Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from Hispaniola and Puerto Rico
into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers much of the area. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate is to the west of the line that runs
from the Windward Passage into the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea.

Some 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the time period
that ended at 07/1200 UTC, are: 0.13 in Guadeloupe, 0.12 in
Trinidad, and 0.11 in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

The surface pressure gradient, that is between subtropical high
pressure that is to the north of the area, and lower pressure
that is in the SW Caribbean Sea, have been supporting E-to-NE
moderate to fresh trade winds in most of the Caribbean Sea.
A localized area of strong NE winds has been pulsing, and the
sea heights have been reaching 8 feet, within 180 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W. The area that is from
the Greater Antilles southward from 81W eastward in general
is filled with sea heights that range from 6 feet to 7 feet.
The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet in the Yucatan
Channel. The sea range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.
Fresh easterly winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet
to 9 feet, are in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and in the
exposed passages that are between the Islands.

Surface ridging north of the area will continue to support
locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Sun
night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola tonight through Sun night. High pressure
building in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh
NE to E winds south of Cuba through Sun evening. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish over most of the basin Mon through
the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through Bermuda to 27N70W, to the central
Bahamas, across Cuba, to La Isla de la Juventud of Cuba.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 300 nm to the SE of the cold front from the southern
half of the Bahamas northeastward. Moderate to locally fresh
winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 6 feet, are
in the immediate vicinity of the front N of 29N.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center has been near
22N64W during the last 24 hours. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm of
the upper level cyclonic circulation center in the
SE quadrant. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
other isolated moderate, are elsewhere from the Greater
Antilles and 20N northward from 50W westward.

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are to
the east of the front from 27N northward. Moderate to
fresh NW winds, and sea heights that are reaching
6 feet, are affecting the NE Florida offshore waters
behind the front. One 24-hour precipitation total in
inches, for the time period that ended at 07/1200 UTC,
is: 0.43 in Bermuda.

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure
center that is near 31N15W, to a 1028 mb high pressure
center that is near 31N41W, to 29N54W, to the SE Bahamas.
The wind speeds are gentle within the ridge, gradually
increasing to fresh easterlies south of 22N. The sea
heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 22N northward.
The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from 22N
southward.

A cold front extends from Bermuda SW to the central Bahamas
and western Cuba. The portion of the front north of 25N
will continue to move east of the area through late today,
with the southern part stalling across the central Bahamas to
northwest Cuba through late Sun, before dissipating Mon. High
pressure building behind the front will support moderate to
fresh trade winds into early next week mainly south of 22N.
Looking ahead, another front will move off the northeast
Florida coast early Mon, then weaken as it reaches from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue. The front will
dissipate Tue night, ahead of a third, stronger front that
will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night and
reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Wed.

$$
mt/ec
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