[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N09W
to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03N50W. Scattered
showers are noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula. High pressure ridge is building in the wake of the
front across the gulf waters. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic
winds prevail across the basin with seas in the 2-4 range across
the northern half of the basin and 4-6 ft range in the southern
half.

For the forecast, the front will stall then dissipate through
Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will persist across much of
the southern Gulf in the wake of the front through Sat morning.
Southerly flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will
dominate this weekend across the Gulf. These winds will diminish
through Sat night ahead of the next front which will move off the
Texas coast Sun morning. The front will stall over the northwest
Gulf but continue across the northeast Gulf through early Mon.
Looking ahead, the front will stall over the eastern Gulf by
early Tue, then dissipate through Tue night. Fresh southerly flow
will return to the Texas coast by late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure north of
the area and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting
fresh trade winds across the eastern and central basin, where
seas remain in the 5-7 ft range. In exposed Atlantic waters east
of the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong easterly winds prevail
with 7-9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh NE winds winds have developed
in the NW Caribbean as the pressure gradient tightens due to an
approaching cold front. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in that region.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will
continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast
through Sun night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward
Passage, and south of Hispaniola Sat night through Sun night. The
cold front entering the Yucatan Channel will dissipate through
Sat. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support
moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of Cuba through Sun
evening. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish over most of
the basin through the early part of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N72W to 24N80W. This front is
supporting scattered showers N of 27N between 69W and the front.
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are ahead of the front N of 28N
while moderate to fresh NW winds and seas to 6 ft are affecting
the NE Florida offshore waters behind the front. The remaining
subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of a broad
surface ridge centered by a 1028 mb high near 31N46W. Winds S of
25N between 37W and 70W are mainly fresh to locally strong with a
NE to E swell component supporting seas of 7-9 ft per altimeter
data. Gentle to moderate E winds dominate the remainder
subtropical waters E of 37W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from Bermuda to
northwest Cuba by this evening. The part of the front north of
25N will continue to move east of the area through late Sat, with
the southern portion stalling across the central Bahamas to
northwest Cuba through late Sun, before dissipating Mon. High
pressure building behind the front will support moderate to fresh
trade winds into early next week mainly south of 22N. Looking
ahead, another front will move off the northeast Florida coast
early Mon, then weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by Tue. The front will dissipates Tue night, ahead of
a third, stronger front that will move off the northeast Florida
coast Tue night and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida
by late Wed.

$$
ERA
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