[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N,
to 03N16W 03N26W 02N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward between 30W
and 60W. Isolated moderate is from 06N southward from 30W
eastward. A surface trough is parallel to the coast of Africa,
within 180 nm of the coast, from 06N to 26N. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the north
central Gulf of Mexico, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 24N97W. The cold front continues from the 1012 mb low
pressure center, to the coast of Mexico from 20N to 21N between
97W and 98W, to 21N99W. A surface trough is along 26N91W to
19N96W at the coast of Mexico. A squall line is within 60 nm to
the E/SE of the cold front from 26N northeastward.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
120 nm to the E/SE of the squall line from 25N northeastward.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds, and sea heights that range from
4 feet to 6 feet, are to the east and to the southeast of the
cold front and trough and the squall line. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5
feet, are in the rest of the western part of the Gulf, away from
the cold front.

Areas of dense fog in the NE Gulf coastal waters will dissipate
later this morning. A cold front extending from near the Florida
Alabama line to near Tampico, Mexico will shift slowly
east-southeast, reaching from the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay
of Campeche by Thu morning, and exiting the Gulf by early Fri. A
squall line ahead of the front, mainly N of 26N, will result in
hazardous conditions. Moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of
the front will persist through today before diminishing.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the
front.
Return flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate
this weekend, weakening by Sun night as the next front
potentially moves into the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is in the Mona Passage, along 67W/68W from 13N
in the Caribbean Sea to 21N in the Atlantic Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 12N
to 25N between 60W and 73W. Broken to overcast low level clouds
and isolated moderate rainshowers are within 125 nm to the south
of Jamaica. Similar clouds and rainshowers are within 60 nm of
the coast of Central America from SE Nicaragua to Panama along
80W. Other rainshowers are spread throughout the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the eastern and central
sections of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle
to moderate winds are in the NW corner of the area. The
exception is moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the Gulf of
Honduras. Locally strong winds are in the south central
Caribbean Sea, in the Windward Passage and north of Jamaica, and
S of Hispaniola. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet,
and  isolated heights of 9 feet, in the south central sections.
Similar sea heights are in the Windward Passage. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the eastern one-third of the
area, with isolated heights of 6 feet. The sea heights are
reaching 6 feet in the waters that are off the coast of the SE
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize, and to the north of Honduras. The
sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

Surface ridging north of the area will continue to support
locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Sun night.
Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and
south of Hispaniola through Thu, returning across the Windward
Passage Sun. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will
prevail through the weekend, locally strong in the Tropical N
Atlantic and through eastern Caribbean Passages through Fri. A
weak cold front will approach the area by the end of the week,
dissipating as it moves into the NW portion.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is in the Mona Passage, along 67W/68W from 13N
in the Caribbean Sea to 21N in the Atlantic Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 12N
to 25N between 60W and 73W.

One surface trough curves through 28N37W 23N39W 16N40W. A second
surface trough passes through  31N38W to 20N49W. A cold front
passes through 31N44W to 30N52W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 30W and
53W.

A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 34N54W. A surface ridge
extends from the 1029 mb high pressure center, through 31N67W,
through the northern half of the Bahamas, beyond the Straits of
Florida.

Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet
to 7 feet, are in the SW N Atlantic Ocean, and in the NE
subtropical waters. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights
reaching 5 feet, are in the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.


Surface ridging will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters through
tonight. The ridge will shift eastward as a cold front moves off
N Florida Thu. The front will extend from 31N74W to the northern
Bahamas early Fri, from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by early
Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Fresh to locally strong
winds are expected over the NE Florida offshore waters later
today and Thu ahead of the approaching front. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 26N and E of
the Bahamas through Fri, with locally strong winds in the
approaches of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola. Moderate
seas in the SE waters will build slightly through Fri night in
fresh NE to E trade wind swell.

$$
mt/jl
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