[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of southern Liberia near 05N08W and continues to 03N13W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N13W to 03N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 00N to 09n between 26W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from SE Louisiana to a 1012
mb low pressure located near 24N97W to Tampico, Mexico. Patches
of dense fog continue ahead of the front in the north-central gulf
coastal and offshore waters. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are
across the eastern half of the basin with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds are in the western half of the
basin with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will slowly shift east-southeast,
reaching from the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche by
Thu morning, and exiting the Gulf by early Fri. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds ahead of the front will persist through today
before diminishing. Only moderate to locally fresh winds are
forecast in the wake of the front. Return flow around high
pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend, weakening by
Sun night as the next front potentially moves into the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the east and central
Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds are seen over the NW
region with the exception of moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the
Gulf of Honduras. Locally strong winds also continue across
portions of the south-central Caribbean, in the Windward Passage
and north of Jamaica, and S of Hispaniola where seas range between
5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging building north of the area and
extending to the northern Caribbean will continue to support
locally strong winds off the Colombian coast, across the Windward
Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu, except off Colombia
where strong winds will continue to pulse through Sun night.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean, and the tropical N Atlantic through the
weekend. Moderate to fresh winds in the NW basin will diminish to
gentle to moderate speeds on Thu, then increase to moderate to
fresh speeds again on Fri as a weak cold front approaches the
area. Winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish back to gentle to
moderate speeds on Sun as the front weakens N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1027 mb located NE of Bermuda near 33N60W extends
a ridge across the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and the
State of Florida. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevail
across this region. Winds increase to moderate to fresh across the
southern periphery of the ridge, affecting mainly the waters S of
23N, including the Old Bahama Channel. Seas are generally 4-6 ft E
of the Bahamas based on altimeter data and buoy observations. A
cold front enters the forecast area near 31N48W and extends SW to
near 28N55W. A surface trough is analyzed along 41W/42W N of 25N.
Light winds prevail near the trough axis. The remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1034 mb high
pressure situated E of the Azores near 37N16W. An area of fresh to
strong trades is noted just N of the Cabo Verde Islands to about
23N based on scatterometer data. Seas area in the 8-9 ft range
within these winds according to an altimeter pass. Mainly fresh
winds are within the island water passages of the Cabo Verde and
the Canary Islands while fresh to strong NE winds are observed
across the waters S of the Madeira Islands to about 30N.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface ridge will dominate the
region through Wed. Moderate or weaker winds north of 27N will
increase to fresh to strong offshore NE Florida Wed night ahead
of a cold front, while winds south of 27N will be moderate to
fresh, locally strong near the Windward Passage. The cold front
will move off NE Florida Thu night, then extend from Bermuda to
the central Bahamas by Sat morning, weakening as it reaches from
29N55W to 24N70W by Sun morning. Moderate to locally fresh winds
are forecast behind the front, diminishing by early Sat.

$$
Ramos
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