[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Liberia near 05N08W and continues to 04N15W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N15W to 04N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 01N to 06N between 31W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters, while a 1009 mb
low pressure center has formed over Corpus Christi, TX, along a
cold front approaching the NW Gulf of Mexico. This results in a
tight pressure gradient allowing for fresh to locally strong
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas building over the Gulf west of 90W,
with seas up to 9 ft in the NW Gulf. Moderate to fresh return
flow prevails over the Gulf east of 90W with 3 to 5 ft seas.
Otherwise, the dense fog that has been affecting the northern
Gulf coast is expected to erode as the low level flow increases
ahead of the approaching storm system.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between a
developing winter storm over the US Southern Plains and high
pressure over the W Atlantic will force fresh to strong SE to S
return flow through this morning across the Gulf of Mexico. The
cold front will slowly move off of the Texas coast this
afternoon, reaching from the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of
Campeche Thu morning, and exiting the Gulf by Thu night.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in its wake on Fri and Sat,
with return flow this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea. A recent scatterometer pass captured
fresh to locally strong NE winds within 70 nm south of
Hispaniola with seas around 6 ft and within 60 nm offshore of NW
Colombia, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Fresh winds were also
captured in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage, where
seas are up to 7 ft. Mainly gentle winds and moderate seas are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface ridge building north of the area
will force moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean and the
tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period. Locally strong
trades are expected to continue within 90 NM of the Colombian
coast, across the approach to the Windward Passage, and south of
Hispaniola through Thu night, as well as near the Gulf of
Honduras tonight.
A weak cold front is forecast to reach the NW Caribbean on Fri
with fresh NE winds and building seas Fri night and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic discussion waters
with a 034 mb center located between the Azores and the Madeira
Islands near 35N22W and another 1025 mb centered over the SW N
Atlantic. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N54W to 20N61W.
Some shower activity is near the trough axis. Light to gentle
winds and 3 to 5 ft prevail across much of the waters north of
23N and west of 40W under the influence of the ridge. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is resulting in moderate to locally fresh
trade winds across the tropical Atlantic with seas generally in
the 5-7 ft range. Similar sea heights are noted N of the Cabo
Verde Islands and E of 40W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface ridge over the SW N
Atlantic waters will promote moderate or weaker winds north of
27N through early Wed, with moderate to fresh trades south of
27N. As the ridge strengthens on Wed and Thu, it will force
fresh to strong tradewinds south of 25N, including the Windward
Passage. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a cold front is
anticipated to occur north of the Bahamas on Wed and Thu. After
emerging from the SE United States coast Thu night, the cold
front should extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat
morning with moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in its
wake.

$$
Mora
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