[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Liberia near 06N10W and continues to 06N15W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N15W to 02N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from the equator to 07N between 30W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico supports
fresh to strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf,
except in the Bay of Campeche, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds
across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Weaker
winds are noted across the coastal waters of the W coast of the
Florida peninsula. Seas are 6-8 ft over the NW Gulf due to the
strongest winds, and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except 1-3 ft across the
coastal waters of W Florida. Shower activity is limited across the
basin.

A moist southerly flow across the Gulf waters will continue to
favor the development of dense marine fog during the overnight
hours. Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until the late morning
hours for the coastal waters from NE Texas to the Big Bend region
in Florida. The dense fog is likely to reduce the visibility to
below 1 nm, creating hazardous marine conditions.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a developing
winter storm over the US Southern Plains and high pressure over
the W Atlantic will force fresh to strong SE to S return flow
across the Gulf of Mexico through Tue night. A cold front will
slowly move off of the Texas coast Tue afternoon, reaching from
the Big Bend of Florida to the Yucatan peninsula by Thu morning,
and cross the SE Gulf by Thu night accompanied by only moderate
to fresh winds in its wake on Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across most of the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted per scatterometer
data and ship observations between Santo Domingo and Cabo Beata
along the south coast of Dominican Republic, and near the Yucatan
Channel. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south-central
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Patches of low level moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow are moving across the basin
producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, a surface ridge building north of the area will
support moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean and the
tropical N Atlantic through Thu morning. Locally strong trades are
expected within 90 NM of the Colombian coast, within the Windward
Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Winds should diminish on Thu
night over the Caribbean ahead of a front moving across the Gulf
of Mexico, while the trades over the tropical N Atlantic will
remain at a fresh breeze. The weakening cold front should reach
the NW Caribbean on Fri with fresh NE winds and building seas Fri
night and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic discussion waters
with a main 1032 mb center located between the Azores and the
Madeira Islands near 35N21W. A surface trough is analyzed from
31N57W to 24N65W. Some shower activity is near the trough axis.
Light to gentle winds prevail across much of the waters north of
20N and west of 45W under the influence of a ridge. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is resulting in moderate to locally fresh trade winds
across the tropical Atlantic with seas generally in the 5-7 ft
range. Similar sea heights are noted N of the Cabo Verde Islands
and E of 35W. Abundant cloudiness, with possible embedded showers,
associated with strong upper-level westerly winds dominates most
of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge over the SW N Atlantic waters
will promote gentle or weaker winds north of 25N for the next two
days. As the ridge strengthens on Wed and Thu, it will force fresh
to strong tradewinds south of 25N including the Windward Passage.
Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a cold front are anticipated to
occur north of the Bahamas on Wed and Thu. After emerging from
the SE United States coast Thu night, the cold front should extend
from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning with moderate to
fresh NW to N winds in its wake.

$$
GR
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