[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021810
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Liberia near 06N10W, then continues to 05N12W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N12W to 06N20W to 03N35W to 00N47W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from the equator to 08N between 27W
and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging anchored over the SE CONUS dominates the Gulf
waters producing fresh to strong SE to S winds over the western
half of the Gulf and moderate to locally fresh return flow E of
90W, noted in buoy observations and recent scatterometer data.
Seas are generally 3-5 ft, with seas up to 6 ft in the NW Gulf
offshore TX. Otherwise, southerly winds and abundant moisture
across the northern Gulf coast continue to support the
development of dense marine fog through the afternoon  hours.
The dense fog is likely to reduce the visibility to below 1 nm,
creating hazardous marine conditions.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between a
developing winter storm over the US Southern Plains and high
pressure over the W Atlantic will force fresh to strong SE to S
return flow through Tue night across the Gulf of Mexico. A cold
front will slowly move off of the Texas coast Tue afternoon,
reaching from the Big Bend of Florida to Yucatan Thu morning,
and cross the Gulf by Thu night accompanied by only moderate to
fresh winds. Patchy dense marine fog is possible at times,
especially within 120 NM of the US coastline through tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging N of the area extends to the northern half of
the basin, thus resulting in a tighter pressure gradient and
moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean with
moderate seas. Slightly higher seas to 9 ft are off the coast of
Colombia due to strong winds pulsing offshore overnight.

For the forecast, the surface ridging building north of the area
will force moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean and the
tropical N Atlantic through Thu morning. Locally strong trades
are expected within 90 NM of the Colombian coast, within the
Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Winds should diminish
on Thu over the Caribbean ahead of a front moving across the
Gulf of Mexico, while the trades over the tropical N Atlantic
will remain at a fresh breeze. The weakening cold front should
reach the NW Caribbean on Fri with fresh NE winds and building
seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive ridge extending from NW of the Azores Islands to
the N Bahamas is retaining tranquil marine conditions of light
winds and slights seas west of 55W. The exception is south of
23N over the Bahamas and N of the Caribbean Islands, trade winds
increase to moderate with 3 to 5 ft seas. The former cold front
drifting across the western Atlantic has dissipated south of
31N.

Farther east, a stationary front is just NW of the Canary
Islands, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and seas to 9 ft
north of 28N. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic waters
is dominated by surface ridging, which provides mainly moderate
to locally fresh winds across the central Atlantic waters and 5
to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure building in behind the
dissipated cold front between Bermuda and the N Bahamas will
leave behind gentle or weaker winds north of 25N for the next
couple of days. The ridge will build through Wed and Thu and
will force fresh to strong tradewinds south of 25N, including
the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a new
cold front is anticipated to occur north of the Bahamas on Wed
and Thu. After emerging from the SE United States coast Thu, the
cold front should extend from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas on Fri
morning with moderate to fresh NW to N winds in its wake.

$$
Mora
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