[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 08N14W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N14W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 22W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the NE Gulf, with surface troughing also
over the western Gulf. A weak pressure pattern prevails over the
Gulf, with light winds over the NE Gulf, and gentle to locally
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, developing high pressure over the W Atlantic
will force fresh to strong SE to S return flow tonight through
Tue night over the N and central Gulf. A cold front will move off
of the Texas coast Tue afternoon and cross the Gulf by Wed night
accompanied by only moderate to fresh winds. A secondary push of
cold air should quickly move across the Gulf on Thu and produce
fresh to strong N to NE winds over most of the Gulf on Fri.
Patchy dense marine fog is possible at times, especially within
120 NM of the U.S. coastline through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the north central as
well as the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over
the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the
south central Caribbean. Over the north central and eastern
Caribbean, seas of 4-6 ft prevail. Seas of 3-4 ft are over the
western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a surface ridge
to the northeast and the Colombian Low will continue to force
moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean through Tue
morning. Locally strong trades will pulse nightly within 90 NM of
the Colombian coast. Winds will increase some starting Tue
afternoon over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the
tropical N Atlantic waters, with fresh to strong trades likely in
the Windward Passage, the Mona Passage, and south of Hispaniola.
Winds should again diminish on Thu over the Caribbean ahead of a
front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. The weakening cold front
should reach the NW Caribbean on Fri, with NE winds and building
seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N75W to just north of the Bahamas.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm east of the
front. Light winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail west of the front.
A surface trough is farther east along 60W. Light to gentle winds
are in the vicinity of the trough. high pressure dominates the
remainder of the discussion waters. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 6-8 ft dominate much of the waters north of 20N. The
exception is north of 27N between 25W and 35W, where northerly
sell is producing seas of 9-10 ft. South of 20N, moderate to
locally fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will track eastward
along and north of 28N early this week. Tradewinds are expected
to increase from Tue night through Thu night south of 25N and
east of 75W. During that time, fresh to strong NE winds will
pulse nightly north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.
Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a new cold front are
anticipated to occur north of the Bahamas on Tue night through
Thu morning. After emerging from the SE United States coast Thu,
the cold front should extend from 31N74W to the central Bahamas
on Fri morning.

$$
AL
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