[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa. The ITCZ
begins offshore of Sierra Leone near 07N15W and extends west to
04N30W, to 02N40W, and to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 08N and between 23W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region allowing for gentle to
moderate E-SE flow across the basin with 2 to 4 ft seas. Lighter
winds are noted in the NE Gulf. The light winds and abundant
moisture across the northern Gulf coast remain favorable for the
development of dense marine fog during the overnight hours
tonight and will remain until the late morning hours tomorrow.
The dense fog is likely to reduce the visibility to below 1 nm,
creating hazardous marine conditions.

For the forecast, a developing high pressure over the W Atlantic
will force fresh to strong SE to S return flow tonight through
Tue night over the N and central Gulf. A cold front will move
off of the Texas coast Tue afternoon and cross the Gulf by Wed
night, accompanied by only moderate to fresh winds. Patchy dense
marine fog is possible at times, especially within 120 NM of the
U.S. coastline through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent across the
Caribbean Sea, with no significant convection. The subtropical
ridge to the north of the islands supports fresh to locally
strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea, where
seas are 6 to 8 ft. Seas are up to 8 ft offshore the Colombian
coast due to strong winds pulsing overnight. A recent
scatterometer pass captured mainly moderate easterly breezes are
noted in the eastern and SW Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 6 ft,
and gentle to moderate breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas in the NW
basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient from the Bermuda High to
the northeast, and the Colombian Low will continue to force
moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean through Tue
afternoon. Locally strong trades will pulse nightly within 90 NM
of the Colombian coast. Winds will increase some starting Tue
night over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the
tropical N Atlantic waters, with fresh to strong trades likely
in the Windward Passage, the Mona Passage, and south of
Hispaniola. Winds should again diminish on Thu ahead of a cold
front approaching the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front has moved off of the Georgia and N Florida
coasts this morning. No significant convection or winds are
associated with this boundary. An expansive high pressure system
north of the area dominates the tropical Atlantic. A weakening
cold front extends from 31N20W to 24N38W, where it transitions
into a dissipating stationary front that is draped westward to
24N51W. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are north of the
boundary, between 20W and 60W. 8 to 10 ft seas are mainly east
of 40W and north of the front, with 6 to 8 ft seas between 60W
and 40W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly
winds west of 27W to about 60W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Calm
to gentle winds are noted elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak cold front will track
eastward along and north of 28N early this week. The tradewinds
are expected to increase on Wed and Thu south of 25N and east of
75W. During that time, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse
nightly north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Fresh
to strong SW winds ahead of a stronger cold front is anticipated
to occur north of the Bahamas on Wed and Thu.

$$
MORA
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