[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Mar 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across
Bermuda, just ahead of a second, reinforcing front. The fronts
will merge and move across the waters north of 25N west of 55W
through Thu night. Strong to near-gale force winds will accompany
the front, and winds may reach minimal gale force north of 30N
between 40W and 50W tonight through Thu morning. Please see the
paragraph below for details on wave heights. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Recent altimeter
satellite data indicates wave heights in excess of 12 ft mainly
north of 26N and east of 55W, reaching as high as 20 ft near
31N45W. The large waves are related in part to successive groups
of long-period NW swell associated with deep low pressure system
well north of the area. Wave heights in excess of 8 ft are
reaching through the tropical Atlantic, east of 55W. Shorter-
period wind seas will mix with the NW swell north of 30N between
40W and 50W tonight, with combined seas reaching as high 20 ft in
that area. Expect seas in excess of 12 ft to persist north of 28N
east of 55W to the Canary Islands into Fri. Looking ahead, seas
will subside slight thereafter, but another round of NW swell can
be expect Sat and Sun north of 28N between 25W and 50W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N15W southwestward to
01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 02S40W. is analyzed
south of the Equator. No significant thunderstorm activity is
evident at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends from 1018 mb high pressure centered over the
southeast Gulf to the northwest Gulf. A trough reaches from the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to the south-central Gulf.
Moderate to fresh SE to E winds are evident off the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula near the trough, where waves are
estimated to be 3 to 4 ft. Light breezes with waves 2 ft or less
are evident in the southeast Gulf, with gentle to moderate SE
winds and 2 to 4 ft waves elsewhere. Areas of sea fog are noted
over the northern Gulf, with a dense fog advisory in effect near
Houston.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
through Wed night. Expect southerly winds, gentle to moderate
for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh over the
western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to favor
the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf during
night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong winds
will pulse tonight and Wed night near and northwest of the
Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. Southerly flow will
increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu ahead of a cold front
forecast to move eastward across the Gulf late Thu night and Fri.
These winds could reach near-gale force across the northern Gulf.
Both winds and seas should gradually subside across the Gulf this
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
upcoming gale event.

The pressure gradient across the basin associated with high
pressure centered over the Bahamas is interacting with local
effects to support a couple of areas of fresh to strong winds in
the Caribbean. A recent scatterometer passes indicated fresh to
strong NE to E winds off central Colombia, where wave heights are
estimated to be 6 to 8 ft. The satellite data also showed fresh to
strong NE to E winds off central Honduras, where wave heights are
near 4 ft. Gentle to moderate to E to SE winds are noted
elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft waves, except 2 to 4 ft waves over the
northwest Caribbean. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is evident at this time.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean
through Sat. These winds will expand northward into the north-
central basin on Thu. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are
likely Wed night and Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night
through Wed. By Thu, these winds will become strong to near- gale
force and spread over the northwestern basin. Moderate long-
period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages
most of this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
an upcoming gale event and on an ongoing significant swell event.

The subtropical ridge extends east to west from near the Canary
Islands to 20N50W to the central Bahamas. Cold front are moving
west to east across the waters north of the ridge, near 40W and
65W. As described in detail in the Special Features section, large
long-period NW swell is noted mainly north of 26N and east of 55W.
Wave heights in excess of 8 ft are evident mainly east of 55W, but
also north of 26N between 55W and 75W. Light breezes are noted
along the ridge axis, with moderate to fresh trade winds south of
the ridge, and strong to locally near-gale force winds north of
the ridge near the cold fronts.

For the forecast west of 55W,

A cold front reaches extends southwestward from 31N35W to
25N46W and to 22N55W, where it becomes a weakening stationary
front to 21N68W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the
front to near 29W and north of 26N. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible within 120 nm SE of the front between
37W-42W. Behind this front, a dissipating cold front extends from
near 31N40W to 28N48W and to 29N57W. No significant convection
is noted with this front. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are
behind the front to near 45W and north of 28N. Seas associated to
both fronts are as described above under Special Features.

Convergent trade winds are resulting in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms northeast of Suriname-French Guiana coast
from 05N to 10N between 47W-54W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

In the western part of the area, relatively weak high pressure
is maintaining gentle W to NW winds along with seas of 5-7 ft
seas north of 20N and between 53W-64W. Off the northeast Florida
coast, fresh with locally strong west to southwesterly winds and
seas of 7-10 ft continue eastward to 64W. In the far eastern
part of the area, gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds along with
seas of 10-16 ft in large NW swell are over the waters north of
18N between the African coast and 29W. Near the Cabo Verde
Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 6-9 ft in
N to NE swell are seen from 09N to 18N between the central
African coast and 37W. Farther west, gentle to moderate ENE to
S-SW winds along with seas of 7-10 ft are present from 05N to 20N
between 37W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 4-6 ft are over the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas will persist east of 63W
through Thu. A cold front will shift into the northern waters
tonight, with fresh to strong westerly winds and building seas.
This boundary will also produce strong to near- gale westerly
winds and higher seas north of 28N across the western Atlantic
waters through Wed. Another cold front is forecast to exit the
U.S. southeast coast on Fri, bringing another round of increasing
winds and seas off Florida and near northwest Bahamas.

$$
Christensen
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