[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front has exited the
middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. this morning. The southwestern
portion of this front will move eastward across the western and
central Atlantic through Thu night. Expect strong to near-gale
westerly winds to the north of 29N to shift eastward, from off
the northeast Florida coast eastward to 55W. Some of these winds
will reach gale-force between 53W and 40W late Wed afternoon and
Wed night. Combined seas will peak between 17 and 20 ft under the
strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large to very large NW
swell persists across the Atlantic waters, mainly north of 11N
between 20W and 60W, with wave periods of 12 to 16 seconds. The
swell was generated by a series of strong low pressure systems
well north of the area that have been moving west to east across
the north-central Atlantic, producing up to hurricane force
winds. Recent altimeter satellite data indicates the maximum
heights south of 31N have subsided to 16-18 ft as the swell
decays, but also that the extent of swell in excess of 8 ft has
spread as far south as 12N. Shorter-period, wind-driven seas
associated with strong to near-gale force winds are mixing with
the swell, north of 25N between 35W and 55W. Reinforcing swell is
expected to move south of 31N and east of 55W by Wed, associated
with another low pressure system well north of the area moving
across the central Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A 1019 mb high just NE of the southeast
Bahamas is going to strengthen and build eastward through Fri.
This will tighten the pressure gradient between the high and
lower pressure across northwestern Colombia. Anticipate strong to
near-gale NE to ENE winds just north of the Colombia coast
through Fri, peaking at gale-force on Wed night and possibly Thu
night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends southwestward across the Guinea near
10N14W to 03N19W to 01.5N25W. The ITCZ then continues westward
from 01N28W through 02N37W to coastal Brazil near 01S48W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen about
portions of the trough and ITCZ, from 00N to 03.5N between 22W
and 44W. Other scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
09.5N between 47W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather prevails across the Gulf basin this morning, as it
resides under the western portion of a low to middle level ridge.
At the surface, a modest surface ridge extends westward from the
western subtropical Atlantic through the Florida Straits to the
Texas coast. Low pressure resides from far western Texas S-SE
across eastern Mexico to the coast near Veracruz. No significant
weather is seen near this feature. Areas of fog persist late in
the morning across the nearshore waters from SE Texas to central
Louisiana, as southerly winds blow across the cooler waters near
the coast. Moderate with locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to
5 ft are present across the south-central and northwest Gulf,
including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate S to SW
winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the current ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through Wed night. Expect southerly winds, gentle to
moderate for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh
over the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to
favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf
during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough.
Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu
ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf on
Fri. These winds could reach near-gale force across the northern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an up-
coming gale event.

A 1019 mb high is centered east of the central Bahamas along about
69W. The associated E to W ridge continues to support a relatively
moderate trade wind pattern for the entire basin. Mild trade wind
showers are found in an elongated low level convergence zone from
14.5N to 18N and extending from the Lesser Antilles to 80W. Fresh
to locally strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present
across the south-central basin, while similar SE winds are present
across the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly gentle ESE to SE winds with 2
to 4 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh easterly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, he pressure gradient between high pressure just
north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat.
These winds will expand northward into the north-central basin on
Thu. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are likely Wed night and
Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed. By Thu,
these winds will become strong to near-gale force and spread over
the northwestern basin. Moderate long-period N swell will impact
the northeastern Caribbean and passages most of this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
an upcoming gale event and a significant swell event.

A cold front reaches southwestward from complex low pressure
across the N central Atlantic, through 31N45W to 29N55W. Patches
of light to moderate showers are occurring near and up to 90 nm
south of this feature. Another cold front lies to the southeast of
this front, and curves southwestward from near the Azores across
31N35W to 25N48W, then continues west-southwestward as a
stationary front to 23N62W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
near and up to 120 nm southeast of the cold front to the north of
22N. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms northeast of Suriname-French Guiana coast
from 05N to 09.5N between 47W and 55W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Morning satellite scatterometer data suggest fresh to strong S to
SW winds are near the aforementioned frontal boundaries north of
24N between 19W and 50W. Refer to the Special Features section
for swell and seas in this area. To the west, gentle W to NW winds
with 5 to 7 ft seas are present north of 20N between 53W and
64W. Off the northeast Florida coast, fresh with locally strong
west to southwesterly winds and 6 to 10 ft seas prevail eastward
to 64W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to ESE
winds and seas at 10 to 16 ft in large NW swell dominate north of
18N between the African coast and 29W. Near the Cabo Verde
Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft
are evident from 09N to 18N between the central African coast and
37W. Farther west, gentle to moderate ENE to S to SW winds with 6
to 10 ft seas are noted from 05N to 20N between 37W and the
Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas will persist east of 63W
through Thu. A cold front moving off the east coast of the United
States today will promote fresh to strong westerly winds and
building seas across the waters off northeast Florida. This
boundary will also produce strong to near-gale westerly winds and
higher seas north of 28N across the western Atlantic waters
through Wed. Another cold front is forecast to exit the U.S.
southeast coast on Fri, bringing another round of increasing winds
and seas off Florida and near northwest Bahamas.

$$
Stripling
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