[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Feb 28 06:03:31 CST 2023

AXNT20 KNHC 281203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
exit the east coast of the U.S. later this morning. The
southwestern portion of this front will move eastward across the
western and central Atlantic through Thu night. Expect westerly
strong to near-gale winds north of 29N to shift eastward from off
the northeast Florida coast to east of 55W. Some of these winds
will reach gale-force between 53W and 40W Wed late afternoon and
Wed night. Combined seas will peak between 17 and 20 ft under the
strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large to very large NW
swell persists across the Atlantic waters, mainly north of 12N
between 20W and 60W, with 12 to 16 second periods. The swell is
related to a series of strong low pressure systems well north of
the area that have been moving west to east across the north-
central Atlantic, producing up to hurricane force winds. Recent
altimeter satellite data indicates the maximum heights south of
31N have subsided to 15-16 ft as the swell decays, but also that
the extent of swell in excess of 8 ft has spread as far south as
12N. Shorter-period, wind-driven seas associated with strong to
near-gale force winds are mixing with the swell, north of 25N
between 35W and 55W. Reinforcing swell is expected to move south
of 31N and east of 55W by Wed, associated with another low
pressure system well north of the area moving across the central
Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A 1018 mb high near the southeast Bahamas
is going to strengthen and build eastward through Fri. This will
tighten further the gradient between itself and lower pressure
near northwestern Colombia. Anticipate strong to near-gale NE to
ENE winds just north of the Colombia coast through Fri. These
winds will peak at gale-force on Wed night and possibly Thu night.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends southwestward across the Sierra
Leone coast just south of Freetown to 00N20W. No significant
convection is seen near the trough. An ITCZ then continues
westward from 00N20W through 02S35W to the coast of Brazil just
east of Belem. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N
to 03N between 22W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest surface ridge extends westward from the Florida Straits
to near the Texas-Mexico border. Farther south, a surface trough
curves northeastward from the central Bay of Campeche to north of
the Yucatan Peninsula, no significant weather is seen near this
feature. Areas of fog are evident in the nearshore waters across
the northern Gulf, with dense fog near Corpus Christi. Moderate
with locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at
the south-central Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through Wed night. Expect southerly winds, gentle to
moderate for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh
over the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to
favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf
during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough.
Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu
ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf on
Fri. These winds could reach near-gale force across the northern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an up-
coming gale event.

A 1018 mb high near the southeast Bahamas continue to support a
relatively fair trade-wind pattern for the entire basin. Patchy
trade-wind showers are found south of Jamaica, Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico. Fresh to locally strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9
ft are present at the south-central basin and Gulf of Honduras.
Mainly gentle E to ESE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the
northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh easterly
winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a high near the
Bahamas and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat. These winds
are going to expand northward into the north-central basin on Thu.
Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at
night through Wed. By Thu, these winds will become strong to near-
gale force and spread over the northwestern basin. Moderate long-
period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean and
passages most of this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
an upcoming gale event and a significant swell event.

A cold front reaches southwestward from a complex low west of the
western Azores across 31N49W to 28N60W. Patchy showers are
occurring near and up to 50 nm north of this feature. Another cold
front curves southwestward from near the Azores across 31N36W to
25N50W, then continues westward as a stationary front to 26N68W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 130 nm
southeast of the cold front north of 25N. Patchy showers are
found up to 80 nm south of the remaining boundary. Convergent
trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms northeast of Suriname-French Guiana coast from 05N
to 09N between 43W and 55W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Earlier satellite scatterometer data suggest fresh to strong SW
to WNW winds are near the aforementioned frontal boundaries north
of 25N between 29W and 55W. Refer to the Special Features section
for swell and seas in this area. To the west, gentle W to NW winds
with 5 to 7 ft seas are present north of 20N between 55W and
75W/the Bahamas. Off the northeast Florida coast, fresh with
locally strong westerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas prevail. Near the
Canary Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds and seas at 10
to 14 ft in large NW swell dominate north of 18N between the
African coast and 29W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to
fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident from 09N
to 18N between the central African coast and 37W. Farther west,
gentle to moderate ENE to S to SW winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are
noted from 05N to 20N between 37W and the Lesser Antilles. Light
to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong westerly winds
behind the cold front near 28N60W will linger north of 29N east
of 58W until mid morning, then become gentle to moderate by noon
today. Rough seas will persist east of 63W through Thu. Another
cold front will move off the east coast of the United States later
this morning, causing fresh to strong westerly winds and building
seas to the waters off northeast Florida. This boundary will also
produce strong to near-gale westerly winds and higher seas north
of 28N across the western Atlantic waters Tue through Wed. Looking
ahead, another cold front is forecast to exit the U.S. southeast
coast on Fri, bringing another round of increasing winds and seas
off Florida and near northwest Bahamas.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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