[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A 995 mb low pressure center is near 36N45W. This low pressure
center is forecast to intensify more, as it moves through the
north central Atlantic Ocean through today. The wind speeds
are reaching gale-force on the southern side of the low, from
28N northward between 41W and 48W, for the next 18 hours or so.
A significant swell event is happening in the Atlantic Ocean
at the same time.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:

A stationary front passes through 31N24W, to 28N34W.
A surface trough continues from 28N34W to 27N46W.
A cold front passes through 31N42W to 28N50W 26N60W
26N70W, to 31N76W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the SE
of the cold front from 42W eastward, and within 120 nm
to the south and SE of the cold front elsewhere.
A separate surface trough also is 24N56W, to the SE
Bahamas near 21N73W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough.
Strong southerly wind speeds, and faster wind speeds,
are from the line 23N52W 23N45W 28N37W 31N33W toward
the N and NE. Moderate W winds are from 21N northward
between 55W and 65W. Moderate and fresh wind speeds
are in much of the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from
60W eastward. The exception is light to gentle wind
speeds that are from 22N northward from 28W eastward.
The sea heights are 7 feet or higher from the line
16N50W 21N30W 23N20W northward. The sea heights are
10 feet or higher from the line 17N50W 22N30W 29N24W
northward. The maximum sea heights are reaching
21 feet near 30N31W. This is mostly due to large
NW swell with periods that have been ranging from 12 seconds to
16 second. Sea heights reaching 8 feet are forecast to move into
the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to 12N and east of 60W, by tonight.
Reinforcing NW swell will maintain very large combined seas from
25N northward through Wednesday night, between 35W and 60W. The
sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 60W
eastward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
Offshore Waters Forecast,
at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Liberia near 06N10W, to the Equator along 20W. The ITCZ
continues from the Equator along 20W, to the Equator
along 30W, to 01S40W, to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb 24N75W Bahamas-area high
pressure center, through the Straits of Florida, into the west
central Gulf of Mexico. Mostly MVFR conditions, with some IFR
conditions are in the coastal plains/coastal waters and inland
areas of Texas. MVFR conditions are in Louisiana. Some IFR and
MVFR conditions continue, elsewhere, from Louisiana to Florida.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds, and the sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the western half of the Gulf.
Gentle to moderate southerly wind speeds, and sea heights that
are ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.

A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Wed
night. Expect southerly winds, gentle to moderate for the
eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh at the western
Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to favor the
development of marine fog across the northern Gulf during
night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong winds
will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough.
Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by
Thu ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across
the Gulf on Fri. These winds could reach near-gale force
across the northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Expect a fair trade wind pattern throughout the entire basin.
Fresh to strong, and locally near-gale ENE winds, and sea
heights that are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet, are in the
south central sections. Moderate to fresh ENE winds, and sea
heights that are ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet, are in the
north central sections. Gentle to moderate ENE-to-ESE winds,
and sea heights that are ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet, cover
the rest of the basin, including in the Gulf of Honduras.

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and
the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trade winds in
the south central Caribbean through Fri. Pulsing winds to
minimal gale-force are possible Wed night and Thu night off
the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras at night tonight through Wed. By Thu,
these winds will become strong to near-gale force and spread
over the northwestern basin. Moderate long-period N swell
will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages most
of this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the gale-force wind warning, and the significant swell event.

Gentle to moderate wind speeds are from 60W westward.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet between 60W and
70W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from the
Bahamas northward from 70W westward. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 4 feet from the Bahamas southward from 70W
westward.

Fresh to strong westerly winds will prevail N of 28N east of
0W through tonight. Rough seas will persist east of 60W
through midweek. A cold front will move off the eat coast of
the United States this evening, bringing fresh to strong
westerly winds and building seas to the waters off northeast
Florida by late tonight. This boundary will also cause strong
to near-gale westerly winds north of 28N across the western
Atlantic waters Tue through Wed.

$$
mt/al
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