[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Feb 26 12:04:50 CST 2023


AXNT20 KNHC 261804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: A current 1006 mb
low pressure center that is near 34N66W, will intensify more, as
it moves toward Bermuda through today. Expect fresh to strong
westerly winds from 28N northward between 56W and 70W. The wind
speeds will reach gale-force, from 29N northward between 55W and
60W by this evening, as this system moves more eastward and it
strengthens. Please, read the paragraph that is about the central
Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event, for details about the
expected sea heights.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Earlier altimeter data
were showing that combined sea/wave heights already were reaching
close to 20 feet near 30N between 45W and 55W. These data
represent a new set of reinforcing northerly swell, to range from
10 feet to 20 feet, with periods that range from 12 seconds to 15
seconds, moving into the waters that are from 20N northward between
25W and 65W today. Another round of a large NW swell will impact
the waters that are from 28N northward between 35W and 55W, by the
middle of the week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 03N20W, and 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from
03N24W to 03N40W. Mostly fresh to locally strong NE winds are from
03N to 13N between 40W and 50W. Fresh NE winds are from 05N to 10N
between 29W and 40W, and from 11N to 14N between 50W and 56W.
Moderate NE winds are elsewhere from 18N southward between 28W and
60W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 02N to 06N between
46W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate is elsewhere from 08N
southward between 40W and 53W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 10N southward from 40W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The skies have been clearing in the U.S.A. Gulf of Mexico coastal
areas during the last few hours. Only some areas of MVFR
conditions are in the Louisiana coastal plains. Dense fog are
persisting up to 40 nm off the northern Gulf coast. A surface
trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. No significant
deep convective precipitation is associated with the trough.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 27N85W in the NE corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds, and
sea heights that have been ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet, are to
the north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the SW corner.
Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are in the NE corner and
in the east central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds, and seas
of 4 to 5 ft, cover the rest of the Gulf.

A 1022 mb high at the northeastern Gulf and western Florida will
dominate most of the region through midweek. Expect gentle to
moderate southerly winds for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to
occasional fresh southerly winds at the western Gulf. This moist
southerly flow will continue to favor the development of marine
fog across the northern Gulf during night and early morning hours.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night into the
early morning hours near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula
due to a diurnal trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach
fresh to strong by Thu ahead of a cold front forecast to move
eastward across the Gulf on Fri. Gales could develop in the wake
of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from central Honduras to the NE corner of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on
either side of the surface trough.

Rainshowers are possible in clusters of scattered to broken low
level clouds that are spread throughout the entire area.

Fresh to strong ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet
to 9 feet, are in the south central and SW sections of the area.
Moderate to fresh ENE winds, and sea heights that have been
ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet, are in the north central sections.
Mainly moderate ENE to E winds, and sea heights that range from 3
feet to 5 feet, are elsewhere.

The pressure gradient between high pressure located E of the
Bahamas and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trade
winds over the south central Caribbean through midweek. Winds off
the coast of Colombia will pulse to minimal gale-force possible
Wed and Thu nights. Fresh to occasional strong winds are expected
in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. Moderate long-
period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean Sea and
the passages through midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for information about
the upcoming GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, and the SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENT.

A cold front passes through 31N32W 26N40W 23N50W 24N55W. The front
becomes stationary, from 24N55W to 27N60W. A 1020 mb high pressure
center is near 28N55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 75 nm to the ESE of the cold front from 25N
northward. Isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the
rest of the frontal boundary. A 1020 mb high pressure center is
near 22N26W. Strong SW winds, and faster than strong, are from
28N northward between 60W and 70W. Strong NW winds, and faster
than strong, are from the cold front northwestward between the
front and 50W. Mostly fresh to locally strong SW winds are from
25N northward between the cold front and 23W, on the eastern side
of the cold front. Fresh N and NE winds are from 15N to 21N from
the Canary Islands eastward. Moderate northerly winds are from 18N
southward from 35W eastward. The sea heights are reaching at least
9 feet from the cold front northward between 40W and 50W. The sea
heights are reaching 18 feet, already, from 27N northward between
40W and 50W. The sea heights are reaching 8 feet, and ranging from
8 feet to 10 feet, from 24N northward between 30W and 40W. The sea
heights are ranging from 7 feet to 8 feet, from 26N northward
between 20W and 30W, and ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet in the
Canary Islands from 27N/28N northward. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere from the frontal boundary southward
from 60W eastward. The sea heights are ranging from 5 feet to 7
feet from 25N northward between 69W and 74W. The sea heights have
been ranging from 9 feet to 15 feet from 27N northward between 60W
and 70W. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 5 feet,
elsewhere from 60W westward.

A cold front associated with a 1006 mb low pressure located near
Bermuda will move across the N waters today reaching from 31N58W
to 29N65 by this evening. At this time, minimal gale force winds
are expected ahead of the front N of 30N between 55W and 60W.
Gales will shift E of the area by tonight. Rough to very rough
seas will follow the front affecting mainly the eastern waters
through midweek. Looking ahead, another frontal boundary is going
to move off the Georgia/Carolinas coast on Mon, bringing fresh to
strong westerly winds and rising seas to the waters E of northeast
Florida by Mon night.

$$
MT/GR
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