[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight gradient exists between
a 1026 mb NW Bahamas high pressure center and lower surface
pressures over northern Colombia. Expect fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean during the daytime hours,
and near-gale to gale-force trade winds at nighttime hours,
through Saturday night. The sea heights will peak in the range
from 10 to 12 feet, with the fastest wind speeds.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell event: The sea heights
currently range from 8 to 12 ft from 25N northward between 30W and
58W. THis area is in the vicinity of a cold front. Sea heights
are forecast to reach 12 feet and greater from 22N northward
between 30W and 63W, from Saturday through early Mon as another
front and low pressure system approaches the area.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 03N19W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 01N26W. A pair of troughs are
analyzed W of the ITCZ along 32W and 43W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails S of 05N between 10W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
fresh SE winds prevail at the central and Bay of Campeche, and
north of the coast of the Yucatan. Seas in these areas range from
4 to 6 ft. Moderate SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident
elsewhere.

For the forecast, patchy dense marine fog is possible within 20
nm of the U.S. northern Gulf Coast through Sat morning. Surface
high pressure will continue to be centered over Florida and the NW
Bahamas during the next few days. A diurnal trough developing
over the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons will
propagate westward over the Bay of Campeche each night through Sun
night. This pattern will lead to gentle to moderate SE winds
across the northern and NE Gulf, while moderate to fresh SE winds
will continue for the southern and SW Gulf, with locally strong
winds during the late afternoon and evening off the NW coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. A frontal boundary across the Gulf States
is likely to cause fresh southerly winds for the NW Gulf Sun night
into early Mon before becoming gentle to moderate on Tue. Return
flow is forecast to increase across the basin during the middle of
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section, for information
about the ongoing Gale Warning.

An 1026 mb high near the northwest Bahamas continues to support a
NE to ESE trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Patchy
trade-wind showers are seen south of the Dominican Republic and
Puerto Rico. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale
NE to ENE winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are present at the south-
central basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found over the north-central basin,
including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas are occurring at the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly
moderate ENE to ESE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast...the surface high near the northwest Bahamas
will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the central
Caribbean through Sat night. These winds should gradually decrease
in both speed and coverage starting Sun. Winds will pulse to
gale-force off the coast of Colombia during the evening and early
morning hours through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Strong to
near gale E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue
through Sun morning. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the
NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters by Sun night.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will return to the Gulf of
Honduras at night beginning Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for information
about the upcoming Central Atlantic Significant Swell
event.

To the west, light to gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are
present near a 1026 mb high, centered near 28N77W. A central
Atlantic cold front extends from 31N28W to 26N42W, then a surface
trough continues from that point to 21N64W. Farther south, another
surface trough is analyzed from 20N42W to 07N45W. No significant
convection is observed at this time with any of these features.
Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and
seas of 5 to 7 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest African
coast and 35W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate with locally
fresh NE trades and seas at 6 to 7 ft are seen from 08N to 20N
between the central African coast and 35W. Gentle to moderate NE
trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted from 04N to 24N/25N between
35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas in moderate northerly swell prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge along 27N will
maintain fresh to locally strong trades north of Hispaniola and in
the Windward Passage through Sun morning. A strong cold front
will move south of 31N tonight, extend from near 30N55W to 28N65W
to 31N78W Sat morning, then begin weakening Sat night while
extending from 25.5N55W to 26N67W to 29N73W. Strong NW to N winds
will follow behind the front late tonight through Sat, mainly east
of 75W and north of 26N. Large N swell will propagate southward
east of 65W Sat through Mon. Looking ahead, a low pressure system
should be located near Bermuda on Sun, likely extending a cold
front with strong to near gale force winds into the TAFB waters
well to the NE of the Bahamas on Sun. This system should then move
E between 28N and 31N through Mon. Gale force winds are possible
Sun night N of 29N and E of 57W. NE swell producing large seas is
expected behind this front, mainly affecting waters N of 27N and E
of 65W through the middle of next week.

$$
ERA
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