[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in
Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to
maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime
hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force each night just
offshore Colombia. Seas will peak near 14 ft within the strongest
winds. Pulsing gales are expected to continue nightly through the
forecast period.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 07N11W and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ stretches from
03N15W to 00N30W to 01S47W. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 05N and east of 25W. Similar
convection is present south of 07N and west of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure system positioned between the Leeward Islands and
Bermuda extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The dry
environment is suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms across the basin. The pressure gradient has
tightened over the western Gulf due to lowering surface pressures
across Texas and northern Mexico, resulting in fresh to strong
southerly winds west of 92W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Fresh to strong SE winds are also found off northern Yucatan,
mainly south of 24N and between 86W and 91W. Seas in the waters
described are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds and
slight seas prevail.

Light, southerly flow in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is likely to
increase the moisture across the coastal waters of Alabama, the
Florida panhandle and Big Bend region. These conditions are
favorable for the development of at least patchy fog in the
overnight hours and lasting through the morning hours.

For the forecast, a ridge axis currently extends from S Florida into
the Gulf along 26N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds have been
observed in the W Gulf, and will increase to strong to near gale-
force tonight through Wed over the NW and north-central Gulf. Peak
seas to 11 ft are forecast in the highest winds through Wed
evening. These winds and seas are ahead of a frontal system that
will stall across Texas. High pressure and associated fresh return
flow is expected across most of the basin Thu, before diminishing
to moderate speeds Fri. However, fresh return flow will persist
on Fri in the SW Gulf and off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected across the basin Sat
through Sun night as the western extension of Atlantic high
pressure will reach westward along 30N. Nocturnal fresh to strong
E to SE winds are expected along the northern Yucatan Peninsula
through the period as the Yucatan Peninsula trough moves offshore.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
continuing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds continue to affect most of
the Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring in the
south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. This was confirmed
by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Near gale to gale force
NE winds are found off the northwest coast of Colombia as
described in the Special Features section. Outside of the Gale
Warning area, seas are 5-9 ft. Gentle to locally moderate east
breezes and seas of 2-5 ft are present in the lee waters of Cuba.
Patches of low level moisture are producing some weak showers
over the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, an Atlantic high pressure ridge along 26N will
help sustain fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean
through Wed, then become strong Wed night through Sat as high
pressure reorganizes NE of the Bahamas. The coverage area of
these winds is expected to diminish beginning Sat night. Winds
will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia each night
through Sat. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in
the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba Wed through Sun night.
Fresh to strong SE winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of
Honduras tonight through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds
will begin in the Yucatan Channel tonight and last through Thu
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic waters.
The pressure gradient between this high pressure and a storm
system south of Nova Scotia result in fresh to strong SW winds
north of 28N and between 55W and 75W. Seas are 6-9 ft in these
waters. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft
prevail south of 20N. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are affecting the
waters north of 25N and east of 19W. Seas in the waters described
are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, an E to W ridge axis along 26N will
weaken through tonight, then reorganize NE of the Bahamas Wed.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds across the northern waters should
continue through early Wed as a frontal system sweeps eastward
across the NW Atlantic. The western end of that front will move
southeastward across the NE forecast waters Wed afternoon and
night, and reach along 22N late Thu. High pressure behind the
front will act to freshen NE to E trade winds south of 24N
during this period. Looking ahead, large NW swell and near gale-
force NW winds are possible on Sat across the NE waters
associated with another cold front. The southern part of a cold
front will brush the NE forecast waters Sun and Sun night.
Otherwise, rather quiet conditions are expected Sun and Sun
night as high pressure settles in over the area.

$$
DELGADO
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