[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in
Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to
maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime
hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force each night just
offshore Colombia. Seas will peak near 14 ft within the strongest
winds. Pulsing gales are expected to continue nightly through the
forecast period. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered just offshore Marco Island,
Florida. Ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico, with light to
gentle return flow and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the high pressure will slide E into the
Atlantic through Wed. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will
develop across the W Gulf today, increasing to strong to near
gale-force speeds tonight and Wed over the NW and north-central
Gulf. Peak seas to 11 ft are forecast in the highest winds through
Wed evening. These winds and seas are ahead of a frontal system
that will stall across Texas. High pressure and fresh return flow
is expected across most of the basin Thu, before diminishing to
moderate speeds Fri. However, fresh return flow will persist on
Fri in the SW Gulf and off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected across the basin Sat
and Sat night as the western extension of Atlantic high pressure
will reach westward along 30N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the
continuing GALE WARNING for the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and
lower pressure over South America continues to produce fresh
trades in the central and SW Caribbean south of 14N outside of
the GALE WARNING area. Seas in this region are 8-11 ft. Trades
are moderate in the central Caribbean north of 14N with 4-7 ft
seas. In the E Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-6
ft seas. In the NW Caribbean, trades are light and gentle with 2-4
ft seas.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridge along 26N will help
sustain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
through Wed, then become strong Wed night through Fri as high
pressure reorganizes NE of the Bahamas. Winds will pulse to
gale-force off the coast of Colombia each night through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in
the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba Wed through Fri night. Fresh
to strong SE winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of Honduras
tonight through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds will begin in
the Yucatan Channel tonight and last through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The lack of active weather in the tropical Atlantic indicates to
this meteorologist that winter is coming to an end and spring is
upon us! 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 27N60W; no other
features are analyzed south of 31N. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, except in the far NW
discussion waters where W winds are fresh to strong, and offshore
Mauritania in the E Atlantic where NE winds are fresh to strong.
Seas everywhere are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the E to W ridge axis along 26N will
weaken through tonight, then reorganize NE of the Bahamas Wed.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds across the northern waters should
continue through early Wed as a frontal system sweeps eastward
across the NW Atlantic. The western end of that front will move
across the forecast NE waters Wed afternoon and night, and reach
along 22N late Thu. High pressure behind the front will act to
freshen NE to E trade winds south of 24N during this period.
Looking ahead, large NW swell is possible on Sat across the NE
waters associated with another cold front.

$$
Mahoney
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