[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A tight surface pressure gradient, that is between the 1031 mb
Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is near 37N70W, and the
comparatively lower surface pressures that are in NW Colombia,
will support strong to near-gale force NE to ENE wind speeds,
during the daytime hours, and gale-force wind speeds during the
late night and early morning hours, in the south-central
Caribbean Sea, just to the north of Colombia, during most of the
upcoming week. The sea heights will be ranging from 12 feet to
14 feet, with the fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest
High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
and the Offshore Waters Forecast
at https://www.nhc.noss.gov/marine/offshores.php,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A surface trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N,
to 12W. The ITCZ continues from 05N12W, to 04N22W, crossing
the Equator along 28W, to 02S38W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are in parts of the SW
Gulf, after the cold front of the last few days exited the area
late last night. The sea heights that are in the SW corner are
ranging from 5 feet to 8 feet. A 1026 mb high pressure is in SE
Louisiana. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.
Expect light to gentle variable wind speeds, and sea heights that
range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the rest of the area.

Fresh N to NE winds prevail over portions of the SW Gulf in the
wake of an old cold front that moved SE of the basin late Sat.
These winds will diminish today. Surface high pressure
and associated ridging will develop across the Gulf today
providing mainly light to gentle variable winds basin-wide
through Mon night. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop
across the western half of the Gulf on Tue ahead of the next
cold front that is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas
Wed morning. These winds are forecast to reach strong to near
gale force speeds Tue night into Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details
about the ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning.

A surface ridge is associated with a 1031 mb Atlantic Ocean
high pressure center that is near 37N70W. The ridge passes
through the northern Caribbean Sea. The ridge continues to
support fresh to strong trade winds in most of the area.
The exceptions are in the Gulf of Honduras, and in the SE
Caribbean Sea, where moderate to locally fresh winds are being
reported. The sea heights have been 7 feet to 9 feet, in the
areas of fresh to strong wind speeds. The sea heights have
been ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet in the SW Caribbean Sea
near Colombia.

High pressure centered SE of Bermuda will weaken today and
dissipate tonight as a cold front continues to move SE
across the western Atlantic and northern Bahamas. Strong high
pressure N of the front is moving eastward into the Atlantic
offshore of the mid Atlantic coast and will help sustain fresh
to strong easterly trades in the central and great portion of
the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba most of
the forecast period. Winds will pulse nightly to gale force off
the coast of Colombia through Thu night. High seas in mixed N and
NE swell across the tropical Atlantic waters will subside Mon
night. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds prevailing east of
the Leeward Islands will diminish to fresh speeds tonight through
Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N58W to 29N62W. A dissipating
stationary front continues from 29N62W, to 27N70W, through
the central Bahamas, through NW Cuba, to the NE corner of the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 25N
northward from 54W westward.

A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 37N70W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the
cold front/dissipating stationary front northward and
northwestward.

A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 23N42W. The sea heights are
ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet in mixed NE and E swell, from 20N
northward between 35W and 50W. Fresh to strong winds have been
within 390 nm of the low pressure center in the N semicircle.
Residual large and long-period mixed NE to E swell, that is
associated with the 1016 mb low pressure center that is near
23N42W, will maintain sea heights to range from 8 feet to 11 feet
in most of the subtropical central Atlantic waters through Mon.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 19N to 28N between 30W and 42W.

Weakening high pressure is centered across the NE waters and
to the south of the front. This pressure pattern will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds S of 22N through late Mon, except
N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage that
will continue through the forecast period. Strong high pressure
building north of the ront will produce fresh NE winds behind
the front today, and gradually veer to the E and diminish through
this evening as the front stalls before dissipating. The tail
of a new cold front is forecast to emerge from NE Florida on
Mon morning and affect the northern offshore waters with
moderate to fresh SW to W winds through early Wed.

$$

mt
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