[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
the Bermuda high and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia
will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale force winds at daytime,
and gale-force at night in the south-central Caribbean through at
least Wed. Seas under the strongest winds will range from 12 to 14
ft.

Central Atlantic Large Swell: Large long-period northerly swell
behind an occluded low and associated front continue to generate
seas of 11 to 13 ft north of 25N between 40W and 50W through
tonight.

Please latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A surface trough is analyzed inland over Africa to 03N15W. The
ITCZ extends westward from 03N15W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and S of 09N between 16W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 25N80W to 22N88W. Fresh to strong NW
winds prevail across Veracruz offshore waters to the central Bay
of Campeche, while moderate to fresh NE winds are noted elsewhere.
Seas S of 27N and W of 85W currently range between 8 to 13 ft,
being the highest in the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5 to 8 ft
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the front will
diminish through Sun. Surface high pressure and associated ridging
will develop across the gulf on Sun providing mainly light to
gentle variable winds basin-wide through Mon night. Moderate to
fresh SE winds will develop across the western half of the gulf on
Tue ahead of the next frontal system, becoming strong Tue night
through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on an ongoing Gale Warning for the SW Caribbean.

The subtropical ridge extends to the northern half of the
Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh to strong
trade winds across the eastern half of the basin, except for
moderate to fresh winds in the NW Caribbean. A shearline extends
along 15N and E of 69W. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted S of
the shearline. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in the E, SW and central
Caribbean, except 11 to 14 ft in the offshore waters of Colombia.
Seas of 3 to 6 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Bermuda high will weaken through Mon as a
cold front moves SE across the western Atlantic, with reinforcing
high pressure building behind it, and due north of the Caribbean
basin. This pattern will sustain fresh to strong easterly trades
across most of the basin through Mon, including the Windward
Passage and lee of eastern Cuba. Winds will pulse nightly to gale
force off the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. High
seas in mixed N and NE swell across the tropical Atlantic waters
will subside Mon night. Strong trade winds prevailing east of the
Leeward Islands will diminish to fresh speeds Sun night through
Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
large northerly swell and rough seas.

A cold front extends from 31N69W to 25N80W. Fresh to strong N to
NW winds and and seas to 10 ft prevail in the wake of the front.
Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front N of 29N and extending as
far as 63W. Surface ridging dominate the waters ahead of the
front, which is anchored by a 1026 mb high centered to the E of
Bermuda. In the central Atlantic, the Special Features occluded
low is centered near 26N42W with cold front extending from the low
to 16N46W, then a shearline begins from that point to 15N61W.
Fresh ENE winds and sea heights to 11 ft prevail N of the
shearline, while moderate NE winds and seas to 10 ft are noted S
of the shearline.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds will
prevail S of 22N through early Mon as the high drifts NE and
weakens. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail behind the front,
then gradually veer to the E and diminish through Sun evening as
the front reaches from 30N55W to just N of the NW Bahamas, and
then stalls. Weak high pressure will then prevail through early
next week.

$$
ERA
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