[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
the Bermuda high and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia
will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale force winds at daytime,
and gale-force at night in the south-central Caribbean through at
least Wed. Seas under the strongest winds will range from 12 to 14
ft.

Central Atlantic Large Swell: Large long-period northerly swell
behind a stationary front are going to generate seas of 11 to 13
ft north of 26N between 39W and 45W through today. Subsiding
swell should allow seas to drop below 12 ft this evening. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed to be inland over Africa. The ITCZ
extends westward from 04N14W to 00N26W to 02N35W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05S to 07N between 10W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida SW to the
Yucatan peninsula. Strong to near gale force northerly winds
follow the front while gale force winds formerly across Veracruz
offshore waters to the central Bay of Campeche have diminished as
the front continues to move E to exit the basin later this
morning. Seas S of 28N and W of 86W currently range between 8 to
14 ft, being the highest in the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5 to 7 ft
are elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the front will
diminish tonight. Surface high pressure and associated ridging
will develop across the gulf on Sun providing mainly light to
gentle variable winds basin-wide through Mon night. Moderate to
fresh SE winds will develop across the western half of the gulf on
Tue ahead of the next frontal system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on an
ongoing Gale Warning.

A 1026 mb high pressure center E of Bermuda and its associated
subtropical ridge extends to the northern half of the Caribbean,
thus supporting the continuation of fresh to near gale force trade
winds across most of the basin, except for moderate to fresh winds
in the SE and NW Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in the E, SW and
central Caribbean, except 11 to 14 ft offshore Colombia. Seas of 3
to 6 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong Bermuda high will sustain fresh to
strong easterly trades across most of the basin through Wed,
including the Windward Passage. Winds will pulse nightly to gale
force off the coast of Colombia through Mon night, however strong
to near gale force winds will continue through the remainder
forecast period. High seas in mixed N and NE swell across the
tropical Atlantic waters will subside Mon night. Strong trade
winds prevailing east of the Leeward Islands will diminish to
fresh speeds Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning on
large northerly swell and rough seas.



For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda high will maintain fresh
to strong winds S of 24N through this morning, then shrink to S of
22N through early Mon as the high drifts NE. A cold front extends
from 31N75W to Fort Pierce, Florida. The pressure gradient
between the subtropical ridge and the front will support strong
winds ahead of the frontal boundary, N of 28N through today as the
frontal boundary moves eastward. Strong northerly winds will
prevail behind the front through this morning then winds will
begin to veer and gradually diminish as the front continues
eastward, and reaches from 31N57W to the NW Bahamas Sun morning,
and then stalls. Weak high pressure will then prevail through
early next week.

$$
Ramos
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