[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171708
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
the subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure over
northwestern Colombia will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale
force winds during the days, and gale-force winds through the
nights in the south-central Caribbean Sea, offshore from
Colombia through midweek next week. Seas under the strongest
winds will range from 11 to 14 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Northerly near-gale to gale-force
winds behind a strong cold front that extends from the central
Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche will continue
to affect the basin as the front continues to shift ESE through
tonight. Gale-force winds are ongoing across the Veracruz
offshore waters and will shift to the Bay of Campeche tonight.
Seas to 17 ft are forecast to build in the Bay of Campeche with
the strongest winds. Conditions will gradually improve across
the west-central Gulf late tonight, and the Bay
of Campeche Sat morning.

For both Gale Warnings above, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed inland over Africa. The ITCZ
extends from 05N15W to 01N30W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N southward between 12W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

A strong cold front extends from the central Florida Panhandle
to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale force N
winds follow the front, except for gale-force winds across the
Veracruz offshore waters. Seas are up to 16 ft behind the front,
and continuing to build. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and
seas to 6 ft are ahead of the front.

For the forecast, gale-force winds behind the aforementioned
front will spread to the Bay of Campeche tonight. The front will
move east and exit the basin early on Sat, with winds and seas
in the wake of the front diminishing Sat night. Surface high
pressure and associated ridging will develop across the Gulf on
Sun providing mainly light to gentle variable winds basin-wide
through Mon night. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop
across the western half of the gulf on Tue ahead of the next
frontal system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Ridging from the 1028 mb Bermuda high centered near 32N57W
extends southward into the northern Caribbean, thus resulting in
a tight pressure gradient across the region that is supporting
fresh to strong trade winds south of 20N and east of 82W, as
well as, in the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are up to 8 ft. In
the central and eastern Caribbean,  a shearline extends across
the Leeward Islands to 16N68W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
present south of the shearline, along with seas of 7 to 10 ft,
except for up to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh ESE winds are in the northwestern Caribbean
with seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the 1028 mb high pressure center east of
Bermuda producing a broad subtropical ridge across the region
will sustain fresh to strong easterly trades across most of the
basin east of 82W through the forecast period, including the
Windward Passage. Winds will pulse nightly to gale force off the
coast of Colombia through early next week. Northerly swell
across the tropical Atlantic waters will subside Mon night.
Strong trade winds prevailing east of the Leeward Islands will
diminish to fresh speeds Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches across the Central Atlantic from 31N37W
to 20N47W, where it transitions to a shearline and continues
across the Leeward Islands near 16N62W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 70 nm on either side of the cold
front north of 21N. Ahead of the cold front, moderate to fresh
SE to S winds are found in a recent ASCAT pass within 200 nm
north of 26N. The pressure gradient between a shearline and the
Bermuda high continues to support a broad area of fresh to
locally strong winds over the SW N Atlantic waters S of 30N
where seas range from 8 to 12 ft.

Fresh to locally strong S winds are ongoing off the NE coast of
Florida north of 22N eastward to 74W ahead of a strong cold
front in the Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to enter the region
later today. Seas in this area are up to 6 ft. Otherwise, with
the exception of locally fresh NE winds between the Cape Verde
Islands and the W coast of Africa, moderate NE winds and seas of
6 to 8 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a broad ridge across the area,
centered on a 1028 mb high just E of Bermuda, will maintain
fresh to strong winds south of 24N into Sat, then south  of 22N
through Mon. A cold front will enter
the waters off NE Florida late today. This will support strong
winds ahead and behind the frontal boundary, north of 28N, today
through Sat as the frontal boundary moves eastward.

$$
Nepaul
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