[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic high and relatively lower pressure over
northwestern Colombia will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale
winds during the days, and gale-force winds for the nights in the
south-central Caribbean Sea, offshore from Colombia through
midweek next week. Seas under the strongest winds will range from
11 to 14 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Northerly near-gale to gale-force
winds behind a strong cold front will continue at the west-central
Gulf offshore of Tampico, Mexico tonight. As the front continues
to move southeastward, these winds are going to migrate southward
into the western Bay of Campeche, offshore of Veracruz by early
Fri morning. Seas in the strongest winds will peak at 11 to 15 ft
at the west-central Gulf, and 15 to 18 ft at the western Bay of
Campeche. Conditions will gradually improve at the west-central
Gulf late Fri night, and the western Bay of Campeche Sat morning.

For both Gale Warnings above, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough is inland over Africa. An ITCZ extends from
02N15W across 03N30W to northeast of Belem, Brazil near 01N46W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm
S of the ITCZ between 20W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen up to 100 nm north of the ITCZ, and south to the Equator.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning.

A strong cold front stretches southwestward from near New
Orleans, Louisiana to just north of Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and up to
90 nm northwest of this front. Behind the front outside the Gale
Warning area, strong to near-gale northerly winds and seas of 8 to
10 ft exist. Offshore from the northern Yucatan Peninsula,
moderate to fresh SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are present. At the
central and eastern Bay of Campeche, light to gentle winds and
seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate southerly winds
and with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will exit the basin early on Sat,
winds and seas in the wake of the front will diminish Sat night.
Surface high pressure and associated ridging will develop across
the gulf on Sun, providing mainly light to gentle variable winds
for the entire Gulf through Mon night. Moderate to fresh SE winds
will develop across the western half of the gulf on Tue ahead of
the next frontal system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning.

The western end of a shear line runs westward from the northern
Leeward Islands to just southwest of the Mona Passage. Patchy
showers are found over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin and northern Leeward Islands. Otherwise, a fair trade-
wind regime continues for the rest of the basin. Outside the Gale
Warning area, strong with locally near-gale NE to ENE winds and
seas of 9 to 11 ft are noted at the south-central basin. Fresh to
strong ENE winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are seen over the north-
central basin, and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE
winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, a subtropical ridge centered north of the area
will sustain fresh to strong easterly trades across most of the
basin through the forecast period. An area of northerly swell
will persist across the tropical Atlantic into the weekend. Strong
trade winds east of the Leeward Islands will diminish to fresh
Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A modest cold front curves southwestward from a 1018 mb low
pressure southwest of the Azores across 31N38W to near 24N45W,
then continues west-southwestward as a shear line through the
northern Leeward Islands. Enhanced by a pronounced upper-level
trough in the vicinity, scattered moderate convection is flaring
up near and up to 120 nm east of the front, north of 23N. Patchy
showers are found along and up to 60 nm north of the rest of this
boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE winds with 9 to 11 ft seas are present north
of 23N between the cold front and 50W. Moderate to fresh ENE winds
and seas of 6 to 9 ft exist from the shear line northward to 27N
between 50W and 70W. Father west, moderate to locally fresh
southeasterly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted from the
Great Bahamas Bank northward between 70W and the Georgia/Florida
coast. Near the Bermuda High at 32N63W, light and gentle winds
and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the eastern Atlantic, gentle to
moderate with locally fresh NNE to SE trades and 8 to 12 ft seas
in large northerly swell are evident north of 14N between the
African coast and the cold front/40W, including near the Canary
and Cabo Verde Islands. To the west, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh ENE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate from 03N to
the shear line/18N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W: a ridge building north of the area
will cause winds south of 25N to increase to strong, along with
seas building up to 11 ft through Sat. A cold front will enter
the waters off northeastern Florida late Fri. As this front moves
eastward across the western Atlantic Fri through Sat, strong
winds are expected ahead and behind it mainly N of 28N.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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