[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:

High pressure over the western Atlantic combined with the
Colombian low continues to support a modest pressure gradient
across the south-central Caribbean, producing fresh to strong NE
to E trades between 70W and 80W. Seas across this area are 8-10
ft, with 8-9 ft seas extending west and southwestward to near
10N78.5W. Winds will pulse briefly to gale force off the coast of
Colombia each night through Fri as the above mentioned high
pressure slides eastward over the western Atlantic. Seas will
range 8 to 11 ft during the periods of strongest winds. Please
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to near 01N20W. The
ITCZ extends westward from 01N20W to the Brazilian coast at
02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator
to 02N between 10W and 14W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and low pressure across the Southern Plains continues
to produce strong southerly return flow across the western Gulf W
of 87W. This pattern has prevailed through the overnight hours,
and seas have built to 8 to 12 ft over the NW Gulf based on
recent buoy observations. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail
elsewhere across the basin, where seas are generally 2-4 ft.
Skies are generally clear to partly cloudy across most of the
basin, except for broken to overcast multi-layer clouds across
NW portions, where patchy light rain is likely.

For the forecast, the strong southerly winds in the NW Gulf will
decrease to moderate to fresh this evening, then increase again
by Wed evening ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge
off the Texas coast Thu morning. Strong N winds and building seas
will follow the front, spreading across the western and central
Gulf into early Sat. Gale conditions are expected near Tampico,
Mexico, Thu afternoon into evening and offshore Veracruz, Mexico,
Thu night through Fri. Seas will build to near 17 ft over the SW
Gulf by Fri afternoon. Conditions are expected to improve from W
to E on Sat into Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please
read the Special Features section for details.

A dissipating cold front extends southwestward through the
Windward Passage to the northern coastal waters of Jamaica.
Isolated showers are possible across the waters between Jamaica
and Cuba along the frontal boundary. Moderate NE winds are noted
per scatterometer data in the lee of eastern Cuba while moderate E
winds are between Cuba and Jamaica. Fresh to strong winds persist
near the coast of Colombia with seas of 8 to 10 ft based on an
altimeter pass. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the remainder
of the basin with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee
of Cuba and 2 to 4 ft in the Windward Passage. Shallow moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the basin
producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient will persist across
the south central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period,
supporting fresh to strong easterly trades. Winds will pulse to
gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through the
weekend. Elsewhere, large NE to E swell with seas to 10 ft is
over the tropical N Atlantic. Winds and seas in this region will
slowly diminish through Wed night into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N58W and continues
SW to the Turks and Caicos Islands then extends as a dissipating
frontal boundary through the Windward Passage. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up ahead of the front
mainly N of 25N between the front and 55W. Fresh to locally
strong winds are still noted on either side of the front N of
27N. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell follow the front N of 26N.
Similar sea heights are noted ahead of the front N of 28N. Cold
air stratocumulus clouds are observed on satellite imagery in the
wake of the front. W of the front, a 1021 mb high pressure is
located near 28N75W and extends a ridge over Florida, the Bahamas
and most of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Light and variable
winds are observed near the high center while gentle to moderate
NE to E winds are blowing across the Bahamas and the Old Bahamas
Channel into the Straits of Florida. E of the front, strong high
pressure prevails, centered on a 1031 mb high pressure situated
just SW of the Azores. Fresh to locally strong tradewinds are
south of 22N and E of 50W, where seas are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate
to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail elsewhere between 50W and
the cold front, with seas generally 5 to 8 ft.

E of 35W, latest Meteo France forecast indicates strong to near
gale force winds for the Madeira Islands and between the Canary
Islands. A cold front crosses between these islands and extend
into the forecast waters to near 28N25W. Seas are 6-9 ft in mixed
swell across these waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the first cold front will continue moving
eastward over the next couple of days, exiting the basin by Wed night.
N of 27N and E of 63W, strong winds and rough seas in association
with this front will prevail into tonight. A building ridge north
of the area will strengthen the trades south of 25N Wed night
through Fri night.

$$
GR
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