[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING:

Expect NE to E gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from
8 feet to 12 feet to pulse up tonight and again Wed night from 11N
to 12N between 74W and 76W. Similar conditions are likely each
night through Fri, due to a continued tight pressure gradient
between high pressure to the north and lower pressure over South
America.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning:

Northerly winds on the west side of a southward drifting low
pressure are likely to increase over the next 24 hours, bringing
the threat of gale conditions to Meteo- France zone Madeira Wed.

Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W to 00N25W to
00N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in associate with
both features, mainly S of 07N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 high pressure center is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
offshore Florida near 26N85W. This is keeping mainly gentle E to
SE winds in place over the eastern basin. The gradient between the
high and lower pressure over the Southern Plains of the United
States is contributing to strong southerly winds over the NW Gulf,
with fresh SE winds over the SW Gulf. Seas in the eastern Gulf are
1 to 3 ft, with 3 to 5 ft seas in the SW Gulf and 6 to 10 ft seas
in the NW Gulf. The highest seas are occurring just offshore the
Lower and Middle Texas coast, where wind gusts are nearing gale
force. With the high pressure being the dominant feature, the Gulf
of Mexico is void of convection this morning.

For the forecast, high pressure in the NE Gulf will move E of the
area today. Strong to near gale force S winds will prevail in the
NW Gulf into tonight. The next cold front will emerge off of the
Texas coast Thu morning, with strong N winds behind it spreading
across the western and central Gulf behind it into the weekend.
Gale conditions are expected near Tampico, Mexico, Thu evening and
offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Thu night through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING.

The weather pattern over the Caribbean Seas is one of a trade wind
regime, dependent on the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over South
America. Relatively dry air is being brought over the waters with
the trades, suppressing any convection from forming this morning.
Where the gradient is tightest, fresh to strong NE to E winds are
ongoing in the south-central and SW basin. The eastern and north-
central Caribbean are experiencing moderate to fresh trades, with
gentle to moderate E winds in the NW. Outside of the area
described in the Gale Warning above, seas are 5 to 7 ft where
fresh to strong wind are occurring, 4 to 6 ft in the moderate to
fresh wind zone, and 2 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will prevail
over the central Caribbean through the week as high pressure
remains centered N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in the far eastern Atlantic.

A cold front passes from E of Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos. A
paralleling surface trough is noted about 150 nm NW of the cold
front. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 30 nm E
of the frontal boundary, N of 27N. Ahead of the front, N of 27N,
fresh to strong SW winds prevail eastward to 50W. Behind the
front, N of 28N, fresh to strong W to NW winds dominate westward
to 50W. Seas in the previously mentioned areas of higher winds are
9 to 14 ft. Elsewhere across waters N of 22N and W of 50W, winds
are mainly moderate or less with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

To the east, another cold front extends from 31N23W to 27N35W.
To the W of this front, fresh mainly NE winds are ongoing with
seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell. Fresh to strong trades and seas of
8 to 10 ft dominate Tropical Atlantic waters S of 22N. For the
remainder of waters N of 22N and E of 50W, mainly moderate trades
dominate with seas of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front from E of Bermuda to
just E of the Turks and Caicos will continue moving east and be
out of the basin by Wed night. N of 27N and E of 65W, strong winds
and rough seas in association with this front will prevail into
tonight. A building ridge north of the area will strengthen the
trades south of 25N on Wed night into Fri night.

$$
KONARIK
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