[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.


Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic high and Colombia Low will continue to
support strong to gale-force E to NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through midweek. Seas with
these winds will range from 10 to 13 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low has moved inland over
the eastern Florida Panhandle, with the associated cold front
extending southward to the Yucatan Channel. This front will move
SE of the area by Sun. As of 0300 UTC, gale-force winds are in
the NE Gulf. Gales will continue behind the cold front as the
low pressure strengthens and strong high pressure builds over
northern Mexico. Seas of 12 to 14 ft are over the Bay of
Campeche and the central Gulf of Mexico between 85W and 91W.
Rough seas will build over the NE Gulf with the gales tomorrow
morning.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure moving up the
Eastern Seaboard into Sun will send a cold front offshore
Florida late tonight, tracking across the waters through the
middle of next week. North of 28N, gales are expected on both
sides of the front through Mon. Rough seas will accompany these
strong to gale force winds, peaking between 12 and 16 ft.

For all the above Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and Offshore Waters Forecast at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to inland Africa. The ITCZ
extends from 03N16W to 00N30W to 02N40W and 00N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02S to 03N between 15W and 37W.
Similar convection is from 05S to 01S between 20W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning for the NE Gulf.

A 1007 mb low has moved inland over the eastern Florida
Panhandle, with the associated cold front extending southward to
the Yucatan Channel. A recent satellite scatterometer pass
revealed strong to near gale force NW to N winds following this
front to 93W due to a tight pressure gradient against strong
high pressure over northern Mexico. Gale force widnsSeas behind
the front and across most of the basin are in the 8-12 ft range,
except for 13-15 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh
winds are west of 93W.

For the forecast, this front will move SE of the area by Sun.
Gales over the NE Gulf are forecast to prevail through Sun.
Elsewhere, strong to near gale-force northerly winds will
dominate. Rough seas of 12 to 16 ft will encompass much of the
Gulf during this time. Conditions will improve from W to E Sun
night into Mon as high pressure builds into the basin. This high
pressure will move E and out of the area Mon night quickly into
Tue, allowing strong to near gale SE to SE return flow to
develop over the W Gulf. Looking ahead, the next cold front will
emerge off the Texas coast on Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off
the coast of Colombia.

Broad ridging associated with high pressure of 1025 mb centered
near 29N53W continues to sustain an easterly trade-wind regime
for the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to
strong E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas exist over most of the
Caribbean basin. Gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas
dominate the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will continue
over the central and E Caribbean Sea through Sun night. These
winds will pulse to gale force near the coast of Colombia at night
into Thu night. A cold front currently entering the Yucatan
Channel will reach central Cuba to offshore Honduras Sun, then
dissipate by Mon. Fresh N winds are expected behind the front over
the NW Caribbean through Sun night. Elsewhere, large and long-
period E swell with seas at 8 to 10 ft is over the tropical N
Atlantic. This swell is affecting the Lesser Antilles and will
continue through Sun before gradually subsiding Mon. In the
extended range, a building ridge north of the area will strengthen
the trades across the Caribbean on Wed and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas.

Surface high pressure of 1025 mb centered near 29N53W extends a
ridge across the SW N Atlantic subtropical waters. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and an approaching cold front from
the W is supporting fresh to strong S winds over the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the entrance to the Windward
Passage, and offshore the FL Peninsula. A line of showers and
thunderstorms is moving E off the NE FL coast, north of 29N,
where strong to near gale force winds were noted in a satellite
scatterometer pass. The large and long-period E swell over the W
Atlantic has abated.

An area of low pressure has drifted south into the central
Atlantic waters, bringing moderate to fresh N winds from 23N to
22N between 30W and 40W with 8 to 11 ft seas extending as far
west as 45W. Seas will continue to propagate east and subside
through tomorrow afternoon.

Elsewhere, the broad subtropical ridge covers the remainder of
central and E Atlantic waters, supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds south of 24N and west of 40W, where seas are 6 to 8
ft. Moderate winds and seas are elsewhere over the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure moving up the Eastern
Seaboard into Sun will send a cold front offshore Florida late
tonight, tracking across the waters through the middle of next
week. Strong winds and rough seas will occur on both sides of the
front - mainly north of 26N through Tue. North of 28N, gales are
expected on both sides of the front through Mon. Rough seas will
accompany these strong to gale force winds. In the extended range,
a building ridge north of the area will strengthen the trades
south of 25N on Wed and Thu.

$$
Mora
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