[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic high and Colombia Low will continue to
support strong to gale-force E to NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through midweek. Seas with
these winds will range from 10 to 13 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends southwestward from
a 1011 mb low just SW of the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan
peninsula. The low, followed by strong high pressure centered over
northern Mexico, is forecast to strengthen and introduce strong
to gale winds with 11 to 14 ft seas at the northeastern Gulf this
evening through early Sun.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal 1011 mb low currently
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually strengthen,
while track northeastward across northern Florida and southern
Georgia up the eastern seaboard of the United States Sun and Mon.
This process will bring strong to gale-force winds N of 29N on
both sides of the front from Sun evening through Mon night between
77W and 65W. Seas in and near these gales will peak between 12
and 16 ft.

For all the above Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from
06N16W to 00N30W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection is from
00N to 10N between 30W and 45W, and from 11N to 23N E of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on two
Gale Warnings.

A 1011 mb low is located just offshore the Florida Big Bend with
a cold front extending southwestward to Yucatan. Strong to near
gale force NW to N winds follow this front all the way to 95W due
to a tight pressure gradient against strong high pressure over
northern Mexico. Seas behind the front and across most of the
basin are in the 8-12 ft range, except for 13-14 ft in the Bay of
Campeche. Moderate to fresh winds are ahead of the front in the
far SE gulf E of 83W.

For the forecast, the low will move northeastward out of the Gulf
tonight while strengthening, and W gales are forecast to develop
in the NE Gulf in its wake. Winds and seas should gradually
diminish from west to east beginning Sun evening. From Mon night
through Wed night, strong to near gale SE to S return flow should
develop over the W Gulf. In the extended range, the next cold
front should emerge off of the Texas coast on Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off
the coast of Colombia.

Broad ridging associated with high pressure of 1026 nm centered
near 30N49W continues to sustain a easterly trade-wind regime for
the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong E
winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft exist E of 82W. Gentle to moderate E
winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft dominate the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will continue
over the central and E Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These
winds will pulse to gale force near the coast of Colombia at night
through Thu. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight,
extend from W Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun morning, then
dissipate by Mon. Fresh N winds are expected behind the front over
the NW Caribbean on Sun and Sun night. Elsewhere, large and long-
period E swell with seas at 8 to 10 ft is over the tropical N
Atlantic. This swell is affecting the Lesser Antilles and will
continue tonight and Sun before gradually subsiding Mon. In the
extended range, a building ridge north of the area will strengthen
the trades across the Caribbean on Wed and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas.


Large and long-period E swell with seas at 8 to 9 ft is occurring
south of 23N and east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The swell is
affecting areas from Hispaniola to the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, a low pressure and its associated cold
front will move off Georgia and NE Florida late tonight. As the
low moves northeastward away from the area, the cold front will
drag across the W Atlantic. It will reach from just west of
Bermuda to E Cuba Mon morning, from just east of Bermuda to
Hispaniola Tue morning, and from 27N55W to 22N64W Wed morning.
Strong winds and rough seas will occur on both sides of the front,
mainly north of 26N, through Tue. North of 29N, gales are
expected on both sides of the front Sun through Mon. The swell
affecting areas from Hispaniola to the Lesser Antilles will
continue tonight before gradually subsiding. In the extended
range, a building ridge north of the area will strengthen the
trades south of 25N on Wed and Thu.

$$
Ramos
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