[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a
high pressure center of 1029 mb that is located to the southwest
of Bermuda near 32N70W and relatively lower pressure that exists
in Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime
gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast
of Colombia through the rest of the week and into the upcoming
weekend. Seas with these winds are forecast to range from 10-14
ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Gulf late Thu night or early Fri morning, and merge
with the stalling front. The merged front will reach from
Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening, and
from near the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Channel by Sat
afternoon. Northerly gale-force winds are expected near Tampico,
Mexico Fri afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico late Fri
afternoon through Sat morning. These winds are forecast to be
of 25-35 kt speeds, except slightly higher winds to attain 40 kt
in the SW Gulf on Fri night, then diminishing to 25-35 kt on Sat
morning. Similar winds of 25-35 kt are forecast to persist in
the central Bay of Campeche through Sat morning. Very rough seas
in the range of 11-18 ft are expected in the wake of the front,
especially over the SW Gulf. The gale-force winds off Tampico
are forecast to diminish by late Fri night, and the gale-force
winds off Veracruz are forecast to diminish on Sat afternoon.
Associated seas subside late Sat night into early on Sun. In
addition, winds are forecast to become strong, NW to N in
direction, with frequent gusts to 35 kt Fri and Fri night along
with seas of 7-10 ft. These conditions diminish into Sat, with
seas slow to subside into Sat evening. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtmlfor
more details.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: A central Atlantic
stationary front is analyzed from near 31N45W southwestward to
26N52W and to 23N62W. Recent altimeter data passes indicate an
are of large seas of 10-13 ft S of 28N and between 51W and the
southeastern Bahamas due to large long-period N swell at 10-14
seconds that is propagating through these waters. The highest of
the seas is concentrated from 19N to 25N and between 59W-73W.
This swell is affecting waters from the Bahamas to the
Hispaniola and to the Lesser Antilles. Buoy observations from
buoys 41044 at 22N59W, 41043 at 21N65W and 41046 at 24N68W
indicated significant wave heights in the range of about 10-13
ft during the past few hours. Buoys 41049 at 27.5N63W and 41047
at 28N71W indicate combined wave heights of 10 ft. The swell
will continue to affect the previously mentioned waters through
Fri night before gradually subsiding. Until then, mariners
navigating these waters can possibly encounter hazardous marine
conditions.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from passes through the coastal
plains of SW Guinea near 09N13W southwestward to 05N15W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ to 02N25W to 01N36W and to the Equator at 49W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between
20W-29W and also between 37W-43W. Similar convection is within
30 nm S of the ITCZ between 15W-18W and between 30W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upcoming strong cold front is forecast to be followed by
gale-force northerly from Fri till early on Sat. Please see the
Special Features section for details.

A stationary front stretches from near Pensacola, Florida south-
westward to 25N92W and to inland Mexico at 18N94W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are to the east of the front
and N of 25N. This activity is tracking in a general E to NE
motion. Moderate to fresh NW winds are W of the front, while
moderate to fresh E to SE winds are E of the front. Seas are in
the range of 3-6 ft throughout, except for slightly higher seas
of 5-7 ft in the SW Gulf and over the water from 22N to 26N W of
94W.

The western extension of Atlantic reaches westward to eastern
Gulf areas, with the associated anticyclonic flow driving the
moderate to fresh E to SE winds that are E of the front.

For the forecast, the stationary front will remain through this
evening. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf early Fri
morning, and merge with the stalled front Fri evening from the
western Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. The
front will reach from near the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan
Channel by Sat afternoon. Northerly gale-force winds and very
seas are expected behind this cold front. Wind and seas will
slowly diminish from W to E late on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details in an
ongoing Gale Warning that is presently in effect for the waters
near the coast of Colombia.

Earlier partial ASCAT data passes showed strong to near gale-
force NE to E trade winds near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong trade winds are over the rest of the central Caribbean
and also over the northeastern Caribbean, mainly N of about 14N.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds winds are in the northern part of
the Windward Passage. These winds spread westward to the waters
that are within 60 nm S of eastern Cuba. Observed seas are in a
high range of 10-14 S of 15N and W of 70W, 7-11 ft S of 15N
between 64W-70W, 8-12 ft N of 15N between 64W-85W and 5-7 ft
elsewhere in the basin. Seas of 5-7 ft are also in the Gulf of
Honduras.

Patches of shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
noted N of about 13N. Isolated showers are possible with these
moisture patches. Isolated weakening showers and thunderstorms
is confined to the far northwestern Caribbean from 20N to 22N and
between 84W-86W.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds will continue
over the central and northeastern Caribbean Sea, with fresh
winds elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Gale-
force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will continue
in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Fri night,
strongest at night. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the
Yucatan Channel late Sat, then reach from central Cuba to central
Honduras late Sun. Fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate
to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Atlantic Swell Significant Swell Event behind a
stationary front.

A central Atlantic stationary front is analyzed from near 31N45W
southwestward to 26N52W and to 23N62W. High pressure N and NW of
the front is associated to a high pressure center of 1029 mb just
N of the area near 32N68W. The gradient between the high
pressure and the frontal boundary is allowing for generally
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds N and NW of the frontal
boundary, except for slighter strong winds of moderate to fresh
speeds and NW in direction that are present N of 28N and W of the
front to near 55W. Mainly fresh to strong E winds are confined
to south of the front between 52W-62W and also S of 25N and W of
62W, including the areas of the Turks and Caicos, the Old Bahama
Channel and the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
are just N of Hispaniola spreading westward to the northern part
of the Windward Passage. Long-period N swell, as described above
under Special Features, is driving seas of 9-14 ft toward the
coasts of northeast Hispaniola, the north coast Puerto Rico
including the Mona Passage, the area of the Virgin Islands and
adjacent Caribbean passages. Mariners can expect hazardous
marine and coastal conditions with these seas.

A cold front is along 31N between 55W-64W. No significant
weather is occurring with this front. The fresh to strong NW
winds behind it remain N of the the discussion area.

The weather pattern for remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters is under the influence of high pressure that is located
to the NE and E of the aforementioned stationary front. The
pressure gradient between this high and the lower pressures in
the vicinity of the ITCZ results in a large area of fresh to
strong NE to E winds S of 21N and W of 30W. Seas of 8-10 ft in
due to NW swell mixing with NE swell from the wind waves are
withing this area fresh to strong NE to E winds.  Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the earlier described stationary
front will weaken through  remain nearly stationary along 23N
through this evening while weakening. Large and long period
northerly swell, with seas up to 13 ft, are occurring south of
27N and east of the Bahamas. This swell is affecting areas from
the Bahamas to the Hispaniola and to the Lesser Antilles. It
will continue to affect these same areas through Fri night
before gradually subsiding. Fresh to strong trade winds are
expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward
Passage through Fri night. Looking ahead, the next cold front
will move off NE Florida by early Sat. A low pressure is
expected to develop along the frontal boundary Sat over the NE
Gulf of Mexico and move to just off the coast of Georgia by Sat
evening. The low will move NE, dragging the cold front across
the forecast region Sat night through Mon night. Strong to near
gale force winds and rough seas are expected on both sides of
the front, mainly N of 27N, with gale force westerly winds
possible north of 30N on Sun and Sun night

$$
Aguirre
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