[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western
Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower
surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue
to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night
through late this week. The sea heights are forecast to range
from 9 feet to 14 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest
wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details.

Atlantic Ocean SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:

A first cold front passes through 31N59W to 25N65W, to the SE
Bahamas near 21N74W. A secondary cold front is about 280 nm to
the NNW of the first cold front. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the SE of the
first cold front from 28N northward, and within 60 nm on either
side of the rest of the first cold front. Isolated moderate is
within 60 nm to the SE of the secondary cold front. Long-period
NW swell, that is combined with NE wind wave, is producing sea
heights that range from 11 feet to 14 feet from 15N northward
between 30W and 50W. The swell train, with a leading edge period
of 16 to 18 seconds, is reaching 01N36W, and the coast of South
America between 40W and 60W. This swell event will continue to
propagate through the Atlantic Ocean between 30W and 60W today.
The sea heights are forecast to subside gradually, to less than
12 feet by tonight. Large northerly swell, that is being
generated by a 976 mb low pressure center that is near 39N63W,
with hurricane-force winds in the NW Atlantic Ocean, currently
is reaching the forecast waters. The sea heights will build to
nearly 18 feet by Wednesday morning, behind the two cold fronts.
The sea heights will be less than 12 feet on Thursday. The sea
heights of 8 feet or greater will continue to cover most of the
Atlantic Ocean forecast waters during this work-week.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from 01N18W,
crossing the Equator along 23W, to 01S30W and 01S39W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
to the south of the line 08N13W 06N33W 03N51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 23N97W, inland to
27N103W in Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are possible
within 120 nm on either side of the surface trough. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from NW Cuba to 26N
between 82W and 87W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers
the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect moderate to fresh
SE-to-S winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet,
in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect gentle to
moderate E-to-SE winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet
to 5 feet in the eastern half of the Gulf. Patches of low level
clouds are elsewhere, moving northward under the southerly flow.

A 1029 mb high pressure center in North Carolina spreads
ridging into the central Gulf, as a cold front moves E over
west-central Texas. The resultant pressure gradient between
these two features will support fresh SE to S winds across the
Gulf of Mexico through Wed. The cold front over Texas will move
over the western Gulf Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas will briefly follow the front that will
stall over the west-central Gulf on Thu while dissipating. A
stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu night, reach from
the Florida Big Bend to Merida, Mexico Fri evening, and exit the
basin by Sat morning. Gale conditions are possible near Tampico,
Mexico early Fri afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico during
the evening hours. Gales could persist over the central and
western Bay of Campeche through Fri night and into Sat morning.
Rough to very rough seas are also expected in the wake of the
front, especially over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters of Colombia.
Please, read the Special Features section for more details.

Sea heights that are ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet are reaching
the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea, on the Atlantic Ocean
side. The sea heights have been ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet
in the coastal waters of Colombia. The sea heights have been
ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet in the rest of the central
one-third of the area, and within 150 nm to the north of Panama.
The sea heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet,
elsewhere, within 500 nm to the north of Panama. The sea heights
have been ranging from 2 feet to 5 feet, elsewhere, in the
western one-third of the Caribbean Sea, that includes in the NW
corner of the area. The sea heights have been ranging from 6
feet to 8 feet in the eastern one-third of the area. Near
gale-force NE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia.
Strong NE winds are elsewhere within 330 nm of the coast of
Colombia. Mostly moderate NE winds are in the eastern one-third
of the area, and in the rest of the central one-third of the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the western
one-third of the area.

Areas of shallow moisture, that are embedded in the trade wind flow,
are moving through the area. Expect isolated to widely scattered
passing rainshowers.

Strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea.
Fresh winds will be elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea through the forecast period. Gale-force winds will pulse at
night near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast
period. The wind speeds will increase in the Windward Passage, in
the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras late this afternoon
through late this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly
winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in
the eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a
cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel on Sat morning, and
move across the NW Caribbean through Sun morning. Fresh to strong N
winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the
front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.

Fresh to strong winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to
12 feet, are on either side of the two cold fronts. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are moving through the Bahamas into the Straits
of Florida. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the period
that ended at 07 Feb/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN, is 0.66 for Bermuda.
The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet from 05N
northward from 30W eastward.

A 1042 mb high pressure center is near 44N28W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward from 60W eastward. The surface pressure gradient that
is between this high pressure center and comparatively lower
pressures that are near the ITCZ, is resulting in a large area
of fresh to strong NE to E winds, and sea heights that range
from 9 feet to 14 feet, from 26N southward from 55W eastward.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas cover the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extending from 31N59W to the SE Bahamas
will reach from 30N55W to 23N65W to the SE Bahamas by this
evening, and from 25N55W to 21.5N70W by Wed evening. Fresh to
strong winds will persist N of 28N on either side of the front
through tonight. Large N swell will propagate across the forecast
waters E of the Bahamas to 55W through late week. Fresh to strong
trade winds are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and
Windward Passage late today through late week. Looking ahead, the
next cold front will move off NE Florida Fri night with strong winds
and rough seas on both sides of the front.

$$
mt/ah
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