[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in
Panama and NW Colombia will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in
the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia,
through midweek. Seas are forecast to peak near 11 to 12 ft
during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Atlantic Gale Warning: An area of low pressure is developing off
the SE US Coast. The low pressure is forecast to move NE and strengthen,
and will produce gale-force winds tonight into Mon morning N of
30N between 69W and 76W. Seas are currently 7-11 ft, and are
expected to build to 10-12 ft by Mon morning. Winds will diminish
below gale force by Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more information.

Atlantic Significant Swell: A stationary front extends from
31N46W to 25N65W to the central Bahamas near 25N76W. Large and
long period swell is analyzed north of the frontal boundary. Seas
are 8-15 ft west of the front to 68W, the highest seas being
located N of 26N to 58W. Swell direction is NW with a period of
12-16 seconds. Aside from the swell, fresh to locally strong NE
winds follow the front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 05N18W to 01N22W.
The ITCZ begins at 01N22W and continues to 00N36W to 01S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05S to 12N between 10W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging has started to weaken across the eastern half of
the basin where a center low pressure has developed just SW of
the Tampa Bay area near 27N85W. This is generating widely
scattered showers E of 85W and S of 29N. A 1023 mb high is off the
coast of southern Louisiana which ridging is supporting mainly
light to gentle variable winds W of 91W. Between 86W and 91W,
moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are observed along with
seas of 4-5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue building across the
basin from west to east. As the high moves E of the area, fresh
to locally strong SE to S return flow will develop Mon night into
Tue, with the strongest winds occurring in the western Gulf. Looking
ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed with strong to
near-gale N winds possible behind it and quickly diminishing as
the front reaches the central Gulf late Wed into early Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

A strong high pressure system centered north of the Caribbean Sea
supports fresh to strong trades across the eastern, central and
portions of the SW Caribbean Sea, with near gale-force winds
occurring off NW Colombia. Seas are 7-8 ft across these regions,
except for slightly higher seas to 10 ft off NW Colombia. Light to
gentle variable winds and seas to 4 ft are across the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient will continue across
the central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Strong
trade winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean Sea,
pulsing to gale-force off Colombia nightly into midweek. Seas
will build to near 12 ft during the strongest winds. Strong
easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and
occasionally in the eastern Caribbean into midweek. Building ridge
will result in fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean Tue into
Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warning in the W Atlantic and Significant Swell in the
Central and Western Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N46W to 25N65W to the central
Bahamas near 25N76W. Fresh to strong winds prevail in the
vicinity of the front, with seas peaking to 12 ft to the east of
the NW Bahamas. Heavy showers are occurring just N of the northern
Bahamas between W of 70W being supported by upper level diffluent
flow. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are ahead of the stationary
front across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters
as shown by recent scatterometer data. Seas are in the 7-9 ft
range in that region. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft are
in the deep tropics.

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary is forecast to
weaken tonight while a low pressure area develops off NE Florida.
The low pressure will move NE into NW Atlantic and strengthen,
with gale-force winds developing late tonight into early Mon
morning N of 29N and between 65W and 73W. Winds will diminish
below gale force by Mon afternoon.

$$
Ramos
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