[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in
Panama and NW Colombia will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in
the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia,
through midweek. Seas are forecast to peak near 11 to 13 ft
during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Atlantic Gale Warning: An area of low pressure is developing off
the SE US Coast. The low pressure is forecast to move NE and strengthen,
and will produce gale-force winds tonight into Mon morning N of
30N between 69W and 76W. Seas are currently 7-11 ft, and are
expected to build to 10-12 ft by Mon morning. Winds will diminish
below gale force by Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more information.

Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extends from 31N48W to
26N63W where a stationary front then continues to 26N75W. Large
and long period swell is analyzed north of the frontal boundaries.
Seas are 12-16 ft are within an area from 31N61W to 27N71W to
26N66W and along the fronts to 31N48W. Highest seas within the
Discussion Area are near 31N52W. Swell direction is NW with a
period of 12-15 seconds. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted
behind the fronts. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 02N22W. The ITCZ
begins at 02N22W and continues to 02S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 07N and east of 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough in the E Gulf of Mexico extends from 30N87W to
24N86W. Recent scatterometer data captured the trough well,
showing moderate to locally fresh cyclonic winds near the trough,
and an incipient low pressure center developing near 27N87W.
Scattered showers are evident on satellite near the surface
trough. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, high pressure maintains gentle
winds. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue building across the
basin. As the high moves E of the area, fresh to locally strong
SE to S return flow will develop Mon night into Tue, with the
strongest winds occurring in the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a
cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed with strong to near-gale
N winds possible behind it and quickly diminishing as the front
reaches the central Gulf late Wed into early Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

A strong high pressure system centered north of the Caribbean Sea
supports fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean Sea,
with near gale force winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas are
6-8 ft in the central Caribbean, and 8-10 ft off NW Colombia.
Moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas are noted in the E
Caribbean. In the SW Caribbean, NE winds are moderate and seas are
4-6 ft. In the NW Caribbean, E winds are light to gentle with 2-4
ft seas.

For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient will continue
across the central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period.
Strong trade winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean
Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into midweek. Seas
will build to near 12 ft during the strongest winds. Strong
easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and
occasionally in the eastern Caribbean into midweek. Building ridge
will result in fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean Tue into
Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warning in the W Atlantic and Significant Swell in the
Central and Western Atlantic.

The W Atlantic Waters northeast of the Bahamas and Turks and
Caicos are experiencing fresh to strong E winds associated with
the frontal boundaries described in the Special Features section.
Seas exceed 8 ft north of a line from 31N45W to 22N71W and along
the Atlantic Exposures of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos to
31N80W. A surface trough and stationary front over the Florida
Peninsula is producing some scattered showers and tstorms between
the coast of Florida and the Northern Bahamas.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds, evident on scatterometer
data, prevail over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, with
seas of 6-7 ft. The exception is an area of locally strong NE winds
south of 20N and west of 30W, which has persisted long enough to
build seas of 8-10 ft in E swell within this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary described in
the Special Features section is forecast to weaken today. The low
pressure centered off the SE US Coast will move NE into the NW
Atlantic and strengthen today, with gale- force winds developing
late tonight into early Mon morning N of 30N and between 69W and
76W. Winds will diminish below gale force by Mon afternoon.

$$
Mahoney
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