[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in
Panama and NW Colombia remains high. This will sustain nighttime
gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the
coast of Colombia, through Sunday night. Seas are forecast to
peak at 9 to 11 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Large Atlantic Swell: A cold front is generating an area of
rough seas reaching heights of 12 to 14 ft in N swell from 26N
to 29N between 70W and the northern Bahamas and from 27N to 31N
and continues north of our area of responsibility, between 63W
and 70W. The rough seas will remain behind the cold front, north
of 25N, within the area of strongest winds, reaching between 45W
and 60W Sunday night, then beginning to subside Monday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 04N20W and to
03N23W. The ITCZ begins at 03N23W and extends to 02N30W and
00N40W. Scattered strong to moderate convection is noted from
00N to 07N between the west coast of Africa and 17W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh E winds are beginning to diminish in the
eastern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. However, seas remain 6
to 8 ft south of 25N and are up to 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel.
Gentle to moderate E winds and seas to 5 ft are elsewhere in
Gulf waters.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds and rough seas will diminish
overnight across the SE Gulf and Bay of Campeche as high
pressure builds into the Gulf. As the high moves E of the area,
fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will develop Mon
night into Tue, with the strongest winds occurring in the
western Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf
Wed with strong N winds possible behind it.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

Strong NE to E winds prevail in the Gulf of Venezuela and within
120 nm off the coast of Colombia, being enhanced by regional
climatological lower pressure. Seas over these areas are 6 to 9
ft, except up to 10 ft offshore NW Colombia. Otherwise, fresh
winds continue over the central and eastern basin, including the
windward passage where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Mainly moderate
trades are west of 80W with 3 to 5 ft seas, except near the
entrance of the Yucatan Channel, seas are near 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia
tonight and Sun night, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, gales are possible again off Colombia Tue and Wed
nights as high pressure builds north of the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
the large swell event over the western subtropical Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N52W to the central Bahamas and
northern Cuba near 80W, where it transitions to a shear line and
continues to the NE Yucatan peninsula. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass found strong to near gale force NE winds north of
the front from 25N to 29N between 70W and 78W, including over
the northern Bahamas. Elsewhere north of the front and west of
55W, fresh to strong NE winds were noted, while east of 55W,
winds shift from the NW. These conditions generate an area of
rough seas discussed in the special features section above. Seas
of 7 to 11 ft are noted elsewhere behind the front, except
within 60 nm offshore the FL Peninsula, seas are 4 to 6 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds are ahead of the boundary, north of 20N.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N42W to 20N45W.
East of the surface trough, trade winds have increased to
moderate to fresh, mainly east of 35W, including north of the
Canary Islands. Seas are 6 to 8 ft north of 24N and between 26W
and the trough axis. Fresh trade winds are also noted south of
20N between 20W and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 6 to 9
ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front is expected to
become stationary overnight, then weaken and dissipate by Sun
night. It will be replaced by another cold front that will move
offshore NE Florida Sun night into Mon. This second cold front
will stall Tue night from 27N55W to the Windward Passage.

$$
Mora
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