[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030923
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect winds to gale force along
with very rough seas off the coast of Veracruz through this
evening, following a cold front sweeping across the Gulf. Seas
will peak at 10 to 15 ft with the strongest winds.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure
over northern Colombia is supporting minimal gale force winds off
the coast of Colombia this morning. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft
with the strongest winds. Gales will diminish later this morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from 05N13W to 02N30W
to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection within 60 nm north of the
ITCZ between 25W and 35W, and within 60 nm of 03N45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters
offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features
section above for more details.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed near gale force winds
over the west-central Gulf off Tampico, following a cold front
extending from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. Buoy
and platform observations indicate the stronger winds behind the
front are so far confined to the far western Gulf, with gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas still in place farther east. Areas
of fog may be on going over the coastal waters of the Florida
Panhandle east of the front, but should be lifting as the front
moves through this morning.

For the forecast, the cold front will move across the Gulf
through this evening. NW to N winds to gale force and very rough
seas will follow the front over the far southwest Gulf off the
coast of Veracruz this morning and persist through the remainder
of the day. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas
will follow elsewhere through tonight. Winds and seas will
diminish from west to east through Sat night across the Gulf as
high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Conditions will be
quiescent across the Gulf Sat night through Mon morning. Looking
ahead, expect fresh to strong S to SE return flow across the W
Gulf on Mon and Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

In addition to the gale force winds and 11 ft seas off Colombia,
recent buoy observations and a scatterometer satellite pass
indicated a large area of fresh to strong trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean, and through the Windward
Passage. Wave heights are 5 to 7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, 8
to 10 ft over the central and southwest Caribbean. Gentle breezes
and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident over the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area is shifting
east ahead of a cold front. While this may limit the gale force
winds off Colombia a bit, new high pressure will build behind the
front quickly enough to support strong to near-gale NE winds off
the coast of Colombia through Sat night. Moderate to fresh E
trades are expected elsewhere through Sat. The cold front moving
across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the northwest Caribbean
tonight and dissipate Sat. Looking ahead, building high pressure
to the north will strengthen the easterly trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Sun through
Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge along 23N is shifting eastward ahead of a cold front over
the Gulf of Mexico approaching from the west. West of 55W, SW
winds north of 28N is starting to increase ahead of the front.
Fresh easterly winds are still in place north of Hispaniola and
near the entrance of the Windward Passage. Between 35W and 55W,
moderate to fresh trades are noted south of 20N and gentle breezes
north of 20N, with 5 to 7 ft seas across the area. East of 35W,
moderate to fresh NW winds are noted east of 35W with 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, SW winds will continue to increase up to strong
or near- gale between NE Florida and Bermuda through this
evening. The cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this
afternoon and will reach from 31N59W to south Florida by Sat
morning. The boundary will begin lifting northward Sun as a warm
front, ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida coast
Sun night. The second cold front will reach from Bermuda to
eastern Cuba by Mon afternoon, then start to stall from 31N55W to
and from 31N60W to 25N60W by Tue afternoon.

$$
Christensen
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