[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western
Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower
surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue
to support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night through
Thursday night. The sea heights are forecast to range from 9 feet
to 11 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest wind speeds.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details.

Gulf of Mexico GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

Expect gale-force winds to start in the SW Gulf of Mexico,
off the coast of Veracruz in Mexico, during the next few hours,
and to end on Friday night, from 19N to 21N between 95W and 97W.
A cold front currently extends from the north central Gulf of
Mexico, into the central Gulf, to the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. The sea heights are forecast to range from 10 feet to 12
feet. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W, to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W, to 03N19W,
crossing the Equator along 23W, to 02S27W 01S37W, crossing the
Equator along 38W, to 03N42W, 02N46W 04N50W 06N54W 07N55W, to
06N57W at the coasts of Guyana and Suriname. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward
from 60W eastward. The comparatively highest concentration of
precipitation is from 05N southward between 12W and 23W, and from
06N southward between 30W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING covers the waters of the SW Gulf of
Mexico from 19N to 21N between 95W and 97W, offshore Veracruz in
Mexico. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more
details.

A cold front reaches from SE Louisiana, into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico near 19N96W. The front continues as stationary,
toward the northwest in Mexico, from 19N96W to 28N103W. Broken to
overcast low level clouds and areas of rain are to the north and
northwest of the cold front. LIFR and IFR conditions, and some
areas of rain, are in the coastal plains of the U.S.A. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet from the cold front westward.
The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere in the Gulf
of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force winds are within 180 nm of
land from the Deep South of Texas to 20N. Fresh winds are from the
cold front northward and northwestward, from 27N northward.
Gentle to moderate winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico.

A cold front extending from low pressure over southern Louisiana
to Veracruz will move across the Gulf through Fri. NW to N winds
to gale force and very rough seas will follow the front over the
far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz starting early Fri
morning and persist through the remainder of the day. Fresh to
strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will follow elsewhere
through Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east
through Sat night across the Gulf as high pressure builds in the
wake of the front. Conditions will be quiescent across the Gulf
Sat night through Mon morning. Looking ahead, expect fresh to
strong S to SE return flow across the W Gulf on Mon and Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, that has been issued for the coastal
waters of Colombia.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, and it is covering the entire Caribbean Sea. Any
precipitation is related to clusters of scattered to broken low
level clouds that are in the trade wind flow.

Strong winds are in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea.
Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the central
one-third of the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet
in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Strong to near-gale NE winds will persist off the coast of
Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to minimal gale force tonight.
Fresh to strong E trades will persist in the Windward Passage and
south of Hispaniola into tonight as well. A cold front moving
across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the northwest Caribbean Fri
night and dissipate Sat. Moderate to fresh E trades are expected
elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, building high pressure to
the north will strengthen the easterly trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Sun through
Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 25N43W 24N35W. A 1017 mb low pressure is
along the surface trough near 25N39W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 450 nm to the east of the eastern half of the
surface trough. Upper level winds are blowing high level moisture
toward the northeast, through the areas that are to the south and
the southeast of the line 27N14W 25N28W 20N46W 10N60W. Moderate to
fresh winds, and moderate sea heights, are in the area of the low
pressure center and the surface trough.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 26N66W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 45W westward
in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate NE to E winds are south of 22N
and west of 65W. Fresh to strong winds are moving into and through
the Windward Passage. The sea heights in these areas are ranging
from 5 feet to 7 feet. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that
range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the rest of the area that is
from 55W westward. The exception is locally moderate winds that
are offshore northern Florida, in advance of a cold front that
is off the Carolinas.

Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet
to 5 feet, are in the north central Atlantic ocean, toward 21N35W,
in mainly NE swell. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and sea heights
that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, cover much of the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean.

Ridging along 26N is supporting moderate to fresh E winds south
of 22N, with strong winds near the entrance to the Windward
Passage, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The ridge will
shift east tonight, allowing SW winds to increase up to strong or
near-gale between NE Florida and Bermuda ahead of an approaching
cold front. The cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Fri
afternoon and will reach Sat morning from 31N59W to S Florida. On
Sun morning, the boundary will begin lifting northward as a warm
front, ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida coast
Sun night. The second cold front will reach from Bermuda to
eastern Cuba by Mon afternoon, then start to stall from 31N55W to
and from 31N60W to 25N60W by Tue afternoon.

$$
mt/ec
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net