[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Dec 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A surface trough is along 31N25W 26N30W 20N40W 17N50W 14N60W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated/widely scattered
strong is to the north of the surface trough between 31N and
52W. Rough seas are on the northern side of the surface trough
between 30W and 50W, and from 28N northward between 20W and
30W. Strong NE winds are: from 28N northward between 25W
and 35W, from 24N northward between 35W and 45W. Strong
NE-to-E winds are from 26N northward between 45W and 57W.
Fresh winds are elsewhere to the north of the line that
passes through 31N25W 26N30W 23N35W 23N42W 22N52W 26N62W
beyond 31N70W. The 24-hour forecast consists of a surface
trough along 28N35W 26N45W 25N60W 28N58W. A 1008 mb low
pressure center is forecast to be along the surface
trough close to 26N45W. Expect E gale-force winds, and
sea heights that range from 12 feet to 15 feet, from 28N
to 30N between 39W and 45W. Expect strong to near gale-
force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 22N to 31N
between 35W and 57W. Please, refer to the High Seas
Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the SE corner of Ghana,
to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, to 02N24W, to the
Equator along 27W, continuing along the Equator to 40W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
12N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is digging into the western sections
of the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal boundary has moved through
Texas, and now to the Texas coastal plains/coastal waters.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the east of
the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the coast of Mexico
near 20N96W. Fresh winds are in the precipitation areas that
are in the south central Gulf. Moderate or slower winds are
in the rest of the area. Slight seas cover the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure across the north-central Gulf will shift
eastward ahead of a dry cold front moving off the Texas
coast. The front will move southeast of the basin Thu night,
followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas.
Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure builds
across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
fresh southerly winds will return to the western Gulf Sun
and Sun night as the high pressures shifts eastward.
Another cold front is expected to move across the northern
and western Gulf Mon, and reach from southwest Florida to
the south central Gulf and SW Gulf by late Mon. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough passes through SE Cuba, through the NW
Caribbean Sea, to Belize. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N northward from 80W westward.
the Windward Passage westward. Precipitation: broken to
overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated
moderate, are elsewhere throughout the area.

Fresh to strong NE winds are within 60 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 74W and 75W. Mostly moderate to some fresh
NE winds are in the rest of the central one-third of the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of
the area. Moderate seas are within 180 nm of the coasts of
Colombia and Panama between 70W and 80W. Slight seas are
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
persist across the basin into Thu. A cold front will move
across the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri morning,
reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri,
then stalling from roughly the Windward Passage to
northeast Nicaragua late Sat and Sun. Fresh to strong winds
will follow the front over the western Caribbean Fri night
through Sun, along with fresh to strong northeast winds
in the Windward Passage Sat night and Sun. By late Mon,
mostly moderate to fresh winds will be over the western
Caribbean and fresh to strong winds near the coast of
Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the 24-hour forecast for gale-force winds.

A cold front extends from a 31N72W triple point, to 27N72W,
to 23N75W in the Bahamas. A surface trough continues from
23N75W, to 1011 mb low pressure center, through SE Cuba, to
Belize. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 20N northward from 62W westward. Moderate seas are
from 65W westward. Fresh westerly winds are from 29N
northward from 75W westward. Moderate or slower winds
are elsewhere from 65W westward.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 30N63W 25N60W,
to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 22N56W.
Fresh E-to-SE winds are from 27N northward between 60W and
70W. Rough seas are from 23N northward between 50W and 60W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is
from 18N northward between 52W and 67W.

Moderate seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 31N72W to the central Bahamas
and to 22N76W. The front will weaken as it lifts to the
northeast through Bermuda, ahead of a second and stronger
cold front that is expected to move off the northeast
Florida coast late Thu night. That next front will reach
from near 31N70W to eastern Cuba Fri night, and from near
Bermuda to the Windward Passage by Sat night. The northern
part of the front will continue to move east through Mon,
but will stall from 25N55W to the Windward Passage.

$$
mt/ec
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