[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210427
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Dec 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from
31N61W to Hispaniola. A 1032 mb high pressure is present in the
eastern United States and a 1050 mb high pressure is centered near
45N25W. The strong pressure gradient due to these systems result
in fresh to strong northerly winds west of the front and fresh to
strong southerly winds east of the front to 48W and north of 25N.
Rough to very rough seas prevail in these waters, peaking around
15 ft near 30N65W. The ridge will slide eastward and weaken
during the next few days. The wind speeds will decrease and the
sea heights will subside to less than 12 ft by Fri.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecasts, and the
Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details
about the Very Rough Seas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 04N09W to 03N08W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N08W to 02N30W. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A robust ridge over the eastern United States sustains moderate to
locally strong easterly winds east of 89W. Seas in these waters
are 5-8 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the
Florida Straits and off NW Cuba. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. No deep convection is
observed across the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish through early next
week as the high pressure shifts east, ahead of an approaching
cold front. The cold front will move off the Texas coast Sun
night, and reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to near Poza
Rica, Mexico by Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front stretches from southern Haiti to the border of
Colombia and Panama near 08.5N77.5W. A few showers are noted
within 90 nm on both sides of front from 12N to 16N. No deep
convection is noted in the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between the strong ridge north of the
islands and the stationary front support fresh to strong N-NE
winds north of 16N. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. The strongest
winds and highest seas are occurring in the lee of Cuba and
Windward Passage. Fresh to strong easterly winds are evident off
southern Hispaniola and off NW Colombia. Seas are 5-8 ft in the
areas described. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate Thu.
Building high pressure north of the area will bring a return to
more typical E trade winds Fri through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event.

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N61W and
continues southwestward to northern Hispaniola. A pre-frontal
trough is evident ahead of the front, anchored by a 1009 mb low
pressure system near 24N59W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen north of 24N and between 55W and 59W. More
information on these features can be found in the Special Features
section.

An upper level low in the central Atlantic is enhancing the
development of isolated showers from 17N to 26N and between 37W
and 50W. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging.
The pressure gradient between the 1050 mb high pressure system
near 45N25W and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in
fresh to strong easterly winds east of 40W. Seas in these waters
are 9-13 ft with the highest seas occurring near 22N29W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will shift east of
region by late Fri, except for the southern portion of the front
stalling across the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong N to
NE winds following the front will diminish through Thu night.
Northerly swell will linger into Sun. Looking ahead, winds and
seas will increase Sun night and Mon from the central Bahamas to
northeast Florida ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.

$$
Delgado
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