[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Dec 17 16:33:53 CST 2023


AXNT20 KNHC 172233
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Dec 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

..SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Storm Warning:
A cold front extends south-southwestward from a 990 mb near 33N80W
to central Cuba and into the Caribbean. A warm front extends from
the low to near 22N67W. A tight pressure gradient between a ridge
extending SW from strong high pressure of 1042 mb near 43N53W and
the area of low pressure is supporting storm force winds over
thewestern Atlantic waters. Seas in this area are in excess of 20
ft. A large area of 12 ft seas has been generated by this system,
with seas greater than 12 ft over the waters N of 25N and W of
66W. The low will rapidly track further northeastward along the
Atlantic coast tonight, with the area of storm and gale force
winds shifting N of the area. The area of 12 ft seas will shift
eastward, merging with another area of large swell generated from
gales over the central Atlantic.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
The same system generating the storm force winds over the western
Atlantic waters is also supporting gales over the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Seas in this area are in the 10-13 ft range. The low will
shift further from the area tonight, with winds and seas
decreasing over the NE Gulf. Winds will diminish below gale force,
and seas will subside below 12 ft, tonight.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning:
Strong high pressure will build over the north central Atlantic.
This will tighten the pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and a surface trough, which will support gale force
winds over the discussion waters N of 27N between 45W and 55W
tonight. Seas will build over these waters, with seas greater than
12 ft spreading southward and westward, merging with the area of
12 ft seas generated from the storm force winds over the western
Atlantic waters through the middle of the week. The area of high
pressure will shift further from the area, loosening the pressure
gradient across the central Atlantic waters diminishing winds
below gale force Tue.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, then extends
westward to near 08N17W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N17W
to 08N24W to 03N35W to 05N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above about an ongoing
Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NW to
NNW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail E of 90W. Gentle to
moderate winds are W of 90W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are between 90W
and 94W, with seas of 4-7 ft W of 94W.

For the forecast, winds and seas will decrease through Mon. High
pressure will then be in control of the weather pattern across
the Gulf waters the remainder of the work- week. By mid-week,
strengthening high pressure N of the region will bring fresh to
strong NE winds across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Cuba to NE Honduras. Fresh to strong
winds prevail W of 81W. Moderate to fresh winds are E of 75W.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
W of 83W, reaching 9 ft in the Yucatan channel. Seas of 3-6 ft are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to
10N80W Mon afternoon, and from Hispaniola near 20N70W to 10N79W
Tue afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 8 to 9
ft are expected in the wake of the front. Strong high pressure
over the Atlantic will continue to produce fresh to locally strong
winds over the NE Caribbean through tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more on the Storm and
Gale Warnings.

A stationary front extends southwestward from a 1014 mb low near
31N38W to north of Puerto Rico, then continues as a warm front to
a 990 mb storm center near 33N80W. A cold front extends from that
low to central Cuba then into the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is N of 20N between 38W and 48W as
well as over the Atlantic waters W of 66W.

Outside of the warning areas, fresh to strong winds prevail N of
20N and W of 50W as well as N of 25N between 40W and 50W. Fresh to
locally strong winds are found N of 20N and E of 25W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Outside of the area of 12 ft
seas, seas of 8-11 ft prevail N of 20N and W of 50W as well as N
of 25N between 40W and 50W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 5-8 ft
range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the storm force winds are forecast
to diminish to gale force by this evening. Behind the front, NW
gales will also develop N of 27N early this evening. Scattered to
numerous strong thunderstorms are ahead of the low and the cold
front forecast to reach from 31N69W to eastern Cuba by Mon
afternoon, and from 31N68W to the N coast of Hispaniola near
20N70W by Tue afternoon. Then, the front will then move slowly E
into the middle of the week as high pressure builds behind it.
Gales ahead of the front will persist through Mon night while
gale behind the front are expected through late tonight.

$$
AL
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