[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Dec 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico, Florida and Western Atlantic Gale Warning and
Significant Swell event: Strong high pressure of 1034 mb across
the eastern United States, extending eastward toward Bermuda
combined with a stationary front that stretches from 24N70W
across the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida into the Gulf of
Mexico supports gale force winds on either side of southern
Florida, including the Straits of Florida. A buoy in the central
Gulf of Mexico recently reported 18 ft. Seas 12 ft of greater
are noted across the Gulf waters roughly from 23N to 29N between
83W and 93W. Similar sea heights are seen from 23.5N to 29N E of
the Bahamas to about 61W. A low pressure will develop and rapid
deepen in the Gulf of Mexico. This will produce additional gales
in the NE Gulf and E of Florida beginning Sat. The strong low
pressure is forecast to move NE Sat and inland across the
Florida Big Bend and N Florida Sat night. This system will bring
heavy rainfall, gale force winds, coastal flooding due to
onshore flow and some threat for severe weather from Florida to
the Mid- Atlantic states. Gales will diminish in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico by Sun morning while persist E of Florida and N
of the NW Bahamas to about 74W. In that area, the forecast calls
for S winds of 30 to 45 kt and seas of 15 to 20 ft. A cold front
associated with this low will exit the Gulf of Mexico by Sun
morning. Gales will continue in the western Atlantic into early
next week.

Gale Warning over the North Central Atlantic: An area of low
pressure currently located near 31.5N50W will drift southward
into our waters. Recent scatterometer pass revealed that NE
gale-force winds are occurring north of the low. Therefore,
gale-force winds will move into the area in the next couple of
hours. Seas will build between 12 and 15 ft in the warning
area.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the Africa continent near 06N10W and
extends to 05N14W. The ITCZ extends from 05N14W to 05N31W to
05N47W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 10N
between the west coast of Africa 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The big weather maker for this weekend in the Gulf of Mexico and
Florida is the low pressure that will form in the SW Gulf
tonight and its rapid deepening. This system will bring severe
weather conditions to the region. Please read the
Special Features section for more details. Gales and hazardous
marine conditions are ongoing in the basin.

For the forecast, strong high pressure across the eastern United
States will support strong winds over the northern and eastern
Gulf of Mexico into tonight, with easterly gales offshore of SW
Florida. Low pressure will form in the SW Gulf tonight, then move
NE Sat and inland across the Florida Big Bend Sat night. This
will produce additional gales in the NE Gulf beginning Sat.
Thunderstorms in association with this low will provide locally
higher winds and seas Sat and Sat night. A cold front will trail
from the low, moving SE of the Gulf Sun morning. Strong north
winds will spill into the western and northern Gulf Sat into Sun
behind the front. High pressure will then settle in over the area
through early next week allowing for marine conditions to
improve.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure over the eastern of the United States and
the western Atlantic is producing fresh to strong NE to E winds
in the lee of Cuba to about 19N, and also from central
Hispaniola to about 17N. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range within
these winds, reaching 11 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to
fresh trades are noted over the south-central Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds prevail. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft in the rest of the
basin. Scattered moderate convection is depicted over the NW
Caribbean on the south side of a stationary front located over
the SE Gulf of Mexico. Patches of low level moisture embedded in
the trade wind flow are observed elsewhere producing isolated to
scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region across the
middle Atlantic states will support fresh to strong trade winds
across most of the basin into tonight, before the high pressure
shifts E and weakens, causing winds to gradually diminish into
Sat night. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel and
into the NW Caribbean Sat night, then stretch from the Windward
Passage to Costa Rica Mon. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will
follow this front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect E of south Florida. In addition,
gale-force winds will develop over the North Central Atlantic.
Please, see the Special Features section for more information.

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N50W, then continues
SW to near 25N61W where it becomes stationary crossing the NW
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. This front is attached to a
low pressure just north of our water near 31.5N50W. Strong to
near gale-force NE winds are N of the stationary front to about
29N. Seas are 12 to 15 ft in association with these winds just E
of the Bahamas. These winds are advecting abundant tropical
moisture over Florida producing intermittent locally heavy
showers. As the low pressure forecast to develop over the Gulf
of Mexico and approaches Florida, showers will become widespread
across South Florida and periods of heavy rain will be possible
especially heading into Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. A
second cold front extends from 31N37W to 19.5N44W. This front is
attached to an occluded low located N of area. The low pressure
has weakened enough to allow winds in its vicinity to drop below
gale force, but it is still generating an area of 12 to 13 ft
over the waters N of 27N between 35W and 39W. Seas are forecast
to subside below 12 ft by Sat morning. At this time, seas of 12
to 15 ft in NW swell are expected in the wake of the
aforementioned cold front, covering the waters E of 55W and N of
a line from 31N44W to 27N55W. Another 1010 mb weak low pressure
near 30.5N40.5W is attached to this occluded front. A deep layer
trough over the eastern central Atlantic is producing showers
east of 30W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the
influence of a ridge.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front over the eastern
Atlanti will drift southward tonight before becoming fully
stationary along 23N by Sat. The pressure gradient between the
strong high pressure building north of the area and the front
will result in near gale to gale-force NE to E winds and high
seas over the waters W of 65W and north of 23N through tonight.
The front will then gradually dissipate Sat night through Sun,
in advance of Gulf of Mexico low pressure that will move NE
across Florida Sat night. This low will move through the NW
Atlantic waters Sun, when a large area of southerly gales will
develop SE of the low. Numerous thunderstorms in association
with this low will provide locally higher winds and seas this
weekend.

$$
KRV
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