[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Dec 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1012 mb low is centered along a
a stationary front near 25N44W. The front extends from the low
east-northeastward to 31N33W and southwest from the low to 19N51W.
Near gale to gale-force northeast to east winds along with seas
of 15-19 ft are occurring northeast of the low from 26N to 30N
between 40W-46W. Satellite imagery shows an increasing solid 60
nm wide band of numerous thunderstorms from 20N44W to 25N41W.
Widespread areas of moderate to heavy rain, with embedded
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted east-
northeast of the low from 24N to 31N between 32W-44W. This
activity is shifting north-northeastward. This system will slide
off to the east-northeast through this evening. As it does, the
tight pressure gradient producing the near to gale to gale-force
winds will slacken just enough to allow for the gale-force winds
to drop to just below gale criteria. Seas will gradually subside
through Fri within the area of the low pressure system. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Significant North Swell: Large north swell continues to
sustain 12 to 15 ft seas from 17N to 30N between 36W and 66W,
including impacting Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. This
swell will subside by early this afternoon, with seas subsiding
to less than 12 ft.

Western Atlantic and Florida Offshore Waters Gale Warning: A
stationary front extends from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas
and to along the coast of western Cuba. Overnight ASCAT data
passes show near gale-force northeast winds northwest of the
frontal boundary. Strong northeast winds are south of 25N between
70W-78W and from 15N to 25N between 55W-65W. Broken to overcast
multilayer clouds, with scattered showers and areas of rain are
west of a line that extends from 31N54W to 20N70W.

For the Significant North Swell and Western Atlantic/Florida
Offshore Gales, please read the latest High Seas and Offshore
Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect frequent gusts to gale-force
north of 27N and east of 90W eastward today and tonight. These
conditions are expected once again on Sat N of 28N and east of
87W. Seas with these winds are forecast to be 10-16 ft. Winds
diminish after Sat. Pleas read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N09W to 05N14W, where overnight scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N30W and to
04N46W. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along
44W/45W from 05N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-32W and within 30 nm north
of the ITCZ between 17W-20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a frequent
gust Gale Warning for the waters N of 27N and east of 90W.

A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front that is the subject of
one of the paragraphs of the SPECIAL FEATURES section passes
through the Straits of Florida, and through the Yucatan Channel,
to the coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. An
upper-level trough is along 77W/80W from 30N southward to
Panama. An upper-level trough is also located over sections of
Texas and Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds along
with scattered to numerous showers and areas of moderate rain
are over the basin north of 23N.

Overnight ASCAT data shows strong to near gale-force northeast
winds east of 91W. Moderate to fresh winds are over the rest of
the area. Rough seas are east of 92W. Moderate seas are over the
rest of the area.

For the forecast, strong high pressure building across the
eastern United States will support fresh to strong winds over the
eastern Gulf. A large area of near gale to gale force winds will
develop over the north central and east sections of the basin
today through Fri. Gale winds are forecast to be confined to far
the NE Gulf Sat and Sat night. A winter low pressure will
develop north of the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night into Sat, then
deepen as it tracks northeastward across the eastern Gulf and
central Florida Sat night into Sun morning. A cold front will
trail from the low, exiting the Gulf early on Sun. Expect
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms over most of the
central and eastern Gulf through early Sun. Fresh to strong
north winds will filter into the western Gulf Sat and Sat night.
High pressure will then settle in over the area through early
next week allowing for marine conditions to improve.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is analyzed from along the coast of western
Cuba to along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, south to
northeast Belize. A surface trough extends from near 13N81W to
the Gulf of Honduras and inland Belize to inland southeastern
Mexico. ASCAT data passes from the overnight hours shows fresh to
strong northeast winds north of 18N and west of about 80W. Strong
northeast winds are over the central section of the sea, while
fresh to strong northeast winds are over the eastern section of
the sea. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are elsewhere west of
80W. Rough seas cover the areas that are from Puerto Rico
southwestward. Moderate seas are over the rest of the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean during the overnight tonight, before gradually
diminishing. Fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward
Passage will diminish Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
the ongoing gale warnings and the Significant North Swell.

A stationary front extends from near 31N68W to the central
Bahamas and to along the coast of western Cuba. Aside from those
conditions described above under Special Features, expect moderate
to fresh winds along with moderate seas throughout the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front extending
from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas and to along the coast of
western Cuba is forecast to lift northward toward the NW Bahamas
and the Straits of Florida today through this evening. The
combination of strong high pressure building north of the area and
the front will result in near gale to gale force northeast to
east winds and building seas over the waters west of 74W and
north of 26N through Fri, with these winds spreading north-
northeastward to the north-central forecast waters Mon and Mon
night. A winter low pressure is forecast to move from the Gulf
of Mexico, across Florida, and into the Atlantic waters this
weekend. A large area of gale force winds is possible east of
the low. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected over most of the western half of the area through the
weekend.

$$
Aguirre
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