[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event
and Gale Warning...

A central Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through
31N34W to 27N40W 19N50W 18N57W. The sea heights are
12 feet or higher, from 19N to 26N between 45W and 60W.
NE near gale-force to gale-force winds are from 24N
northward between 35W and 45W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N
northward between 30W and 46W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 16N northward between 25W and 60W.
Near gale-force NE winds are from 20N to 28N between
50W and 60W. Strong NE winds are from Puerto Rico and
the NE Caribbean Sea islands to 25N between 60W and 70W.
Moderate to rough seas are from 20N to 27N between 60W
and 70W; from 08N to 19N between 50W and 60W; and from
16N northward from 40W eastward.

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning ...

A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through
31N68W, to 29N70W, crossing the central Bahamas, beyond
Cuba near 21N78W, to 18N80W in the NW Caribbean Sea, to
a 1014 mb Gulf of Honduras 16N87W low pressure center,
to southern Belize. Strong NE winds are from the Straits
of Florida northward from 75W westward. Moderate to rough
seas are mostly from the stationary front northward, from
the Bahamas northward. Slight seas are from the Bahamas
southward. The 45-hour forecast consists of a 31N59W 24N80W
cold front. Expect NE to E gale-force winds, and sea heights
to range from 10 feet to 12 feet, from 24N to 28N between
78W and 81W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that
is issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exteds from

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extending from the N covers the entire basin,
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas in the 5 to 8
ft range W of 90W. Over the eastern half of the basin, a tighter
pressure gradient between the ridge and a stationary front over
the NW Caribbean supports fresh to strong NE winds and seas in the
8 to 10 ft range.

For the forecast, strong high pressure building across the SE
United States will continue to support and increase the areal
coverage of fresh to strong winds over the E Gulf to the NW Gulf
by early Thursday. A large area of near gale-force winds will
develop over the north-central and E basin Thu through Fri night
with the potential to reach gale-force. Low pressure will develop
N of the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night into Sat and then track NE
across central Florida Sat night into Sun morning. A cold front
will move into the western Gulf Sat, with strong to near gale-
force winds and rough seas. The front will merge with the area of
low pressure by Sat night and exit the basin Sun morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from E Cuba to Honduras and is followed
by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas. The front is also
supporting a broad area of scattered showers and tstms in the NW
Caribbean. Strong high pressure and associated ridging extending
to the northern Caribbean continue to support fresh to strong
trades over the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage. Seas are rough over these regions with peak seas to 13 ft
off the coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean through tonight. Seas in these regions will be in the 8
to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia adjacent waters where winds
will reach near gale-force. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas over the NW Caribbean behind the front will diminish to
moderate to fresh speeds by this evening as the front starts to
weaken while retreating back to the SE Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to
strong NE winds in the Windward Passage are forecast to diminish
Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about a
Significant Swell Event and two Gale Warnings.

A stationary front extending from 31N67W to E Cuba is generating
scattered showers across Florida and adjacent waters between the
Peninsula and the front. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas in the
7 to 10 ft range are over this region as well. Farther east, over
the central Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 30N35W to
17N56W, also supporting a broad area of showers and tstms. Surface
ridging is elsewhere between the fronts and E of the central
Atlantic boundary. A tight pressure gradient between the W
Atlantic ridge and the second front continue to support a broad
area of fresh to near gale force NE winds with rough seas to 16
ft. A developing low within the front will lead to the development
of gale force winds later this morning and continuing through
tonight as the low gradually lifts northward.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front over the western
Atlantic is forecast to lift northward towards the NW Bahamas and
the Straits of Florida today. Strong high pressure building north
of the area will lead to the development of strong to near-gale
force NE to E winds and building seas over the northern Bahamas
and Straits of Florida through today, with these winds spreading
northward and eastward through Fri. Gale-force winds are possible
east of Florida later this week. An area of low pressure is forecast
to move from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and into the
Atlantic waters this weekend. A large area of gale force winds are
possible east of the low.

$$
Ramos
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