[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Dec 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event
and a Central Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A central Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through
31N34W to 27N40W 19N50W 18N57W. The sea heights are
12 feet or higher, from 19N to 26N between 45W and 60W.
NE near gale-force to gale-force winds are from 24N
northward between 35W and 45W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N
northward between 30W and 46W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 16N northward between 25W and 60W.
Near gale-force NE winds are from 20N to 28N between
50W and 60W. Strong NE winds are from Puerto Rico and
the NE Caribbean Sea islands to 25N between 60W and 70W.
Moderate to rough seas are from 20N to 27N between 60W
and 70W; from 08N to 19N between 50W and 60W; and from
16N northward from 40W eastward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning ...

A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through
31N68W, to 29N70W, crossing the central Bahamas, beyond
Cuba near 21N78W, to 18N80W in the NW Caribbean Sea, to
a 1014 mb Gulf of Honduras 16N87W low pressure center,
to southern Belize. Strong NE winds are from the Straits
of Florida northward from 75W westward. Moderate to rough
seas are mostly from the stationary front northward, from
the Bahamas northward. Slight seas are from the Bahamas
southward. The 45-hour forecast consists of a 31N59W 24N80W
cold front. Expect NE to E gale-force winds, and sea heights
to range from 10 feet to 12 feet, from 24N to 28N between
78W and 81W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that
is issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian
along 04N, to 04N10W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from
06N23W 04N32W 06N40W 05N50W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm
to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between
18W and 25W, and within 60 nm to the south of the ITCZ
between 33W and 37W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere from 10N southward from 50W eastward.
A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 49W/50W
from 07N to 17N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 06N to 17N between 45W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through SE Louisiana, to the coast
of Mexico near 20N97W. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that
a trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula northward.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds span
the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 90W westward.

Mostly fresh to some strong anticyclonic wind flow covers
the area. Some rough seas are in the area of the SE Gulf
and in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate seas cover much of
the rest of the area. An exception is for slight seas
near the coast of Mexico near 20N97W.

Strong high pressure will build across the eastern United
States, increasing areal coverage of fresh to strong winds
over much of the Gulf by Thursday. A large area of near
gale-force winds will develop over the north-central and
E basin Thu through Fri night. Low pressure will develop
over the southern Gulf by the end of the week, and track
NE across southern Florida Sat night. This will further
tighten the pressure gradient, with gale-force winds
possible over the SE Gulf Fri. A cold front will move
into the western Gulf this weekend, with strong to near
gale-force winds and rough seas west of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through
31N68W, to 29N70W, crossing the central Bahamas, beyond
Cuba near 21N78W, to 18N80W in the NW Caribbean Sea, to
a 1014 mb Gulf of Honduras 16N87W low pressure center,
to southern Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 14N northward from
Jamaica and SE Cuba westward. Strong NE winds, and moderate
to rough seas, are from the stationary front northward.
Rough seas are from the Greater Antilles southward from
Puerto Rico to Central America. Moderate to rough seas are
in the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 11N74W beyond southern Panama.
The GFS model for 700 mb shows that broad cyclonic wind
flow is covering the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 14N southward
from 73W westward. Shallow patches of moisture are
supporting isolated showers throughout the rest of the area.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time
period that ended at 13/0000 UTC, are: 0.16 in Bermuda;
and 0.09 in Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Strong high pressure N of the region will support fresh
to strong trade winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean through Wed night. Seas in these regions will
be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia adjacent
waters. A stationary front extends from E Cuba to Honduras,
with fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to the north
of the front. These winds will continue through Wed morning
when the front will lift northward towards the Straits of
Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will
gradually decrease the end of the week into the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event/
the Central Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning; and
for the Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning.

Mostly moderate and some fresh winds, and moderate seas,
are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A stationary front extending from 31N67W to E Cuba is
forecast to lift northward towards the NW Bahamas and
the Straits of Florida tonight. Strong high pressure
building north of the area will lead to the development
of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and building
seas over the northern Bahamas and Straits of Florida
through Wed, with these winds spreading northward
through Thu night. Gale-force winds are possible east
of Florida later this week. An area of low pressure is
forecast to move from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida,
and into the Atlantic waters this weekend. A large area
of gale force winds are possible east of the low.

$$
mt
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