[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event...

Strong to near gale-force NE winds and sea heights of 12 to 13
feet are ongoing in the Atlantic subtropical waters from 20N to
31N between 30W and 66W. The sea heights will build to 17 feet
this evening and into Thu. The area of sea heights of 12 feet is
expected to expand SW and reach the Puerto Rico Atlantic regional
waters tonight through Thu. The rough seas will continue to
affect this region through Thursday night, before subsiding to the
range of 8 feet to 10 feet by Friday. Please, read the latest
High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
details.

...Central Atlantic Gale Warning...

A low pressure center is forecast to develop in the central
subtropical Atlantic Wed evening into early Thu. The low will
deepen and develop gale-force winds in the N and W semicircles Wed
morning through the evening hours. Please, read the latest High
Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W to 03N37W to
03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N between
06W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas are ongoing over
the SE Gulf this morning.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas
will prevail over the SE Gulf through later this morning behind a
stationary front currently in the NW Caribbean. However, strong
high pressure building in the wake of the front will lead to the
redevelopment of fresh to strong NE to E winds basin-wide this
evening into the weekend as the front retreats back towards the
Gulf again. Near gale-force to gale-force winds are likely to
develop over the north-central and NE basin Thu through Fri night.
A low pressure will develop N of the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night
into Sat and track NE across southern Florida Sat night as a new
cold front emerges from the coast of Texas followed by strong to
near gale-force N winds and rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across the central, eastern
and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea this morning. A stationary
front is over the NW Caribbean extending from E Cuba to NE
Nicaragua followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central, eastern
and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea through Thu, except for near
gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. Rough seas in these
regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia
adjacent waters. Fresh to strong winds behind the front in the NW
Caribbean winds will continue through Wed morning as the front
stalls from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras before retreating
back towards the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico.
Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will bring
fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage Tue evening
through Fri morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section for details about a
Significant Swell Event and a Gale Warning for the Central
Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N70W to E Cuba.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front is forecast to
retreat back towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida
this evening. Strong high pressure building north of the area will
lead to the development of strong to near-gale force NE to E
winds and building seas over the northern Bahamas offshore waters
and Straits of Florida today through Wed, and over the Florida and
the remainder Bahamas offshore waters Wed through the weekend.
Gale force winds are likely to develop Thu evening through the end
of the forecast period.

$$
Ramos
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