[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Dec 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front is extending
from 31N76W SW to western Cuba. Gale-force winds ahead of a cold
front over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 67W will
continue through about noon today when the front is forecast to
extend from 31N72W to central Cuba. Afterward, fresh to strong
southerly winds and rough seas will continue ahead of the front
through this evening. The front is forecast to stall W of
Bermuda to central Cuba Tue morning, before retreating back
towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Wed. Strong
high pressure building north of the area will lead to the
development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and
building seas over the central and northern Bahamas offshore
waters Tue and Wed, and over the Florida offshore waters Wed
through Fri night. There is a high chance for the re-development
of gales or gust to gale force winds over a great portion of the
region with the retreat of the front.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure
gradient from high pressure extending a ridge over the central
Atlantic and a trough of low pressure between 48W and 50W will
support strong NE winds just N of the trough. Twelve ft seas are
seen north of 23N between 25W and 54W. Seas will build to 15 ft
late tonight/early Tue with the area of 12 ft seas expanding to
the regional waters of Puerto Rico and eastward to 35W through
Wed morning. Rough seas will continue to affect this region
through Thu before subsiding to 8-10 ft Thu night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Guinea coast near 11N15W to
09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 03N44W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong pressure gradient between a cold front that extends
from western Cuba to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula and high
pressure building behind it, is supporting fresh to strong NE
winds in the E and SW Gulf. Rough seas in the 7 to 10 ft range
cover these regions, being the highest seas in the SW Gulf.
Mainly gentle winds and seas 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the
Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the E and
SW Gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by noon today.
High pressure building north of the area will lead to fresh to
near gale force winds across the E and NW Gulf Tue evening
through Thu with potential gale force winds developing over the
north-central and NE basin Fri and Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level diffluent flow is supporting scattered
showers and tstms over the NW Caribbean ahead of an approaching
cold front. Currently, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE
over this region, with seas 6 to 8 ft. In the E Caribbean,
easterly winds are also moderate to fresh with seas in the 5 to
7 ft range. Strong high pressure N of the area, continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds in the central basin with 8
to 11 ft seas.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and
portions of the SW Caribbean Sea through Thu, except for near
gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. Rough seas in these
regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia
adjacent waters. A cold front over the NW Caribbean is followed
by moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas. These winds
will reach strong speeds in the NW Caribbean tonight through Wed
morning as the front stalls from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras on Tue before retreating back towards the Straits of
Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Strengthening high
pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE
winds in the Windward Passage Tue evening through early Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas and a significant swell
event over the central Atlantic.

A strong cold front extending from 31N76W SW to western Cuba.
Gale-force winds ahead of a cold front over the offshore waters
N of 27N and W of 67W while seas range between 8 and 13 ft.
Additionally, a line of numerous moderate to strong convection is
depicted ahead of the cold front north of the western Bahamas. A
stationary front extends from 31N29W to 23N45W. Surface ridging
covers the subtropical waters between the fronts, which is
supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds between both frontal
boundaries. Surface ridging covers the E subtropical Atlantic
waters, however a weaker pressure gradient support gentle to
moderate NE wind over that region where seas are in the 5 to 7
ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force winds ahead of a cold
front over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 67W will
continue through about noon today when the front is forecast to
extend from 31N72W to central Cuba. Afterward, fresh to strong
southerly winds and rough seas will continue ahead of the front
through this evening. The front is forecast to stall W of
Bermuda to central Cuba Tue morning, before retreating back
towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Wed. Strong
high pressure building north of the area will lead to the
development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and
building seas over the central and northern Bahamas offshore
waters Tue and Wed, and over the Florida offshore waters Wed
through Fri night.

$$
KRV
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net