[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Dec 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front extending from
31N79W SW to Cape Canaveral will extend from 31N71W to central
Cuba by tonight. Gale force winds ahead and behind the front N of
27N will diminish by noon today. Afterward, fresh to strong
southerly winds and rough seas to 11 ft will continue ahead of the
front through this evening. The front is forecast to stall W of
Bermuda to central Cuba Tue morning, before retreating back
towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Wed. The
pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the
area and lower pressure associated with the frontal boundary will
lead to the development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds
and building seas over the central and northern Bahamas offshore
waters Tue and Wed, and over the Florida offshore waters Wed
through Fri night. There is a high chance for the re-development
of gales or gust to gale force winds over a great portion of the
region with the retreat of the front.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure
gradient from high pressure extending a ridge over the central
Atlantic and a trough of low presure near 40W-45W will support
strong NE winds on the west side of the trough. Seas will build to
12 ft by Mon night north of 23N between 40W and 50W. Seas will
build to 14 ft by Tue morning with the area of 12 ft seas
expanding from 20N to 31N between 35W and 57W. Rough seas will
continue over this region through the end of the week. Rough seas
are expected to reach the north facing Leeward Islands by Wed.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on
these Special Features...

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Guinea near 11N15W to
08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 01N44W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front extends from Cape Coral, Florida SW to the
Yucatan Peninsula this morning. A strong pressure gradient
between the front and high pressure building behind it is
supporting fresh to strong northerly winds in the E and SW gulf.
Rough seas in the 8 to 15 ft range cover these regions, being the
highest seas in the SW gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin later this
morning. Winds in the SW and E gulf will diminish to moderate to
fresh speeds by noon today and seas will subside below 8 ft at
night. Looking ahead, the aforementioned front is forecast to
stall across the western Atlantic and NW Caribbean on Tue, before
drifting back towards the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf on
Wed. The pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north
of the area and lower pressure associated with the frontal
boundary will lead to fresh to near gale force winds across the E
and NW gulf Tue evening through Thu with potential gale force
winds developing over the north-central and NE basin Thu night
through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level diffluent flow is supporting scattered
showers and tstms over the NW Caribbean ahead of an approaching
cold front that will exit the Gulf of Mexico later this morning.
An altimeter pass indicate seas in the 4 to 7 ft range over this
region, except for 8 to 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Currently,
winds are moderate to fresh from the NW over this region. In the E
Caribbean, winds are also moderate to fresh with seas in the 5 to
7 ft range. Strong high pressure N of the area, continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds in the central basin with 8 to
10 ft seas.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and
portions of the SW Caribbean Sea through Thu, except for near
gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. Rough seas in these
regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia
adjacent waters. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this
morning followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough
seas. These winds will reach strong speeds in the NW Caribbean
tonight through Wed morning as the front stalls from central Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras on Tue before retreating back towards the
Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Strengthening
high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong
NE winds in the Windward Passage Tue evening through early Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas and a significant swell
event over the central Atlantic beginning tonight.

A strong cold front extends from 31N79W SW to Cape Canaveral.
Gales are ahead and behind of the front N of 27N while seas range
between 8 and 12 ft. A stationary front extends from 31N29W to
23N45W. Surface ridging covers the subtropical waters between the
fronts, which is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds between
both frontal boundaries. Surface ridging covers the E subtropical
Atlantic waters, however a weaker pressure gradient support
gentle to moderate E to NE wind over that region where seas are in
the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force winds ahead and behind a
cold front over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 67W will
continue through about noon today when the front is forecast to
extend from 31N72W to central Cuba. Afterward, fresh to strong
southerly winds and rough seas to 11 ft will continue ahead of the
front through this evening. The front is forecast to stall W of
Bermuda to central Cuba Tue morning, before retreating back
towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Wed. The
pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the
area and lower pressure associated with the frontal boundary will
lead to the development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds
and building seas over the central and northern Bahamas offshore
waters Tue and Wed, and over the Florida offshore waters Wed
through Fri night. Gale or gust to gale-force winds are possible
over the Florida and Bahamas offshore waters Wed through Fri.

$$
Ramos
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