[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110613
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A strong cold front stretches
across the Gulf of Mexico from the Big Bend of Florida to
northern Yucatan and will move SE of the basin Mon. Although
storm force winds have diminished, gales are continuing over
much of the SW Gulf of Mexico. Gale force winds will continue
overnight tonight, diminishing by 1200 UTC. Seas are over 12 ft
for much of the western Gulf of Mexico, with heights reaching 16
to 17 ft offshore Veracruz. These seas will gradually subside
but remain above 12 ft in the Bay of Campeche through tonight.
Seas will fall below 8 ft by Tue.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the Florida coast tonight. The front will extend from 31N77W to
Melbourne, FL by tonight and from 31N71W to central Cuba by Mon
night. Gale force winds will briefly develop tonight N of 29N
between NE Florida and 73W. Rough
seas to 11 ft can be expected behind and ahead of the front in
areas of strong to near gale force winds. As the front weakens,
strong winds will diminish by Mon afternoon. Rough seas will
continue to linger across waters W of 67W through midweek as the
next system moves across the Atlantic.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on
these Special Features...

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Guinea near 11N15W to
08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 01N44W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information about the
Gale Warning in the SW Gulf.

Outside of the gale force winds, a recent scatterometer pass
picked up on a large area of strong to near gale force following
the front. In the far NW Gulf, winds and seas are subsiding to
moderate or less northerly breezes and 4 ft seas or less. The
squall line is exiting the basin and no significant convection
is noted at this time.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE of the area
overnight. Winds and seas will gradually subside across the
basin late Mon. Looking ahead, the aforementioned front is
forecast to stall across the western Atlantic and NW Caribbean
on Tue, before drifting back towards the Straits of Florida and
the SE Gulf on Wed. The pressure gradient between very strong
high pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated
with the frontal boundary will lead to fresh to near gale force
winds across the E and NW gulf Tue evening through Thu with
potential gale force winds developing over the north-central and
NE basin Thu night through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure from the central Atlantic stretches across the
northern Caribbean. A squall line has cross over the Yucatan
channel, bringing a cluster of thunderstorms over the NW basin
from 15N to 20N between 78W and 85W. Strong to near gale force
winds were noted behind the squall line in a recent scatterometer
pass. The pressure gradient between lower pressure along the
coast of Colombia and the high pressure north of the basin is
leading to fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin.
Mainly fresh trade winds are occurring in the eastern Caribbean.
Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft extend across the central Caribbean
between 65W and 82W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft near the Lesser Antilles.
In the NW Caribbean, gentle trade winds prevail with seas of 4 to
6 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will
continue to bring a large area of strong trade winds across the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea through Thu. A cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean Mon morning followed by moderate
to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas. These winds will reach
strong speeds in the Yucatan Channel and W Cuba adjacent waters
Mon evening as the front reaches from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. The front will stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras on Tue before retreating back towards the Straits of
Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Strengthening high
pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE
winds in the Windward Passage Tue through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas in association with a
cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight.

The strong cold front that will bring gale force winds to the
Atlantic coast is quickly advancing towards the area, and is
currently analyzed over northern Florida. In response, strong S
winds prevail for areas N of 25N and W of 70W. Seas in this are
have increased to 6 to 9 ft. Strong E winds also prevail across
the Turks and Caicos and offshore Hispaniola, along with seas of 8
to 10 ft.

Across the central Atlantic, surface ridging stretches across
the area anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure near 38N57W. A
stationary front extends from 31N34W to 22N48W, with gentle to
moderate E to SE winds ahead of it. Following the front due to
the pressure gradient from the ridge, fresh to locally strong NE
to E winds dominate waters N of 20N and W of 45W, with seas of 7
to 10 ft. Another area of fresh to strong winds is noted from
10N to 20N and west of 55W to the Caribbean Islands, as well as
over the passages. In the eastern Atlantic, high pressure also
extends across the area leading to benign conditions. Mainly
gentle winds prevail with seas 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near- gale force winds are
likely on either side of the front once it enters the west
Atlantic waters. Seas will build ahead and behind the cold
front. The front is forecast to stall from Bermuda to central
Cuba on Tue, before retreating back towards the NW Bahamas and the
Straits of Florida on Wed. The pressure gradient between very
strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure
associated with the frontal boundary may induce strong to near
gale force winds NE to E winds and building seas to the east of
Florida to about 70W. Gale conditions are possible toward the end
of the work- week.

$$
Mora
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