[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A strong cold front stretches
across the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexico
coast near Veracruz. The front will stretch from the Big Bend of
Florida to northern Yucatan by this evening, then move SE of the
basin by Mon. The latest scatterometer from late this morning
shows widespread gale-force winds across the western Gulf of
Mexico. Frequent gusts to gale force are also occurring off the
Texas coast. The latest buoy data show seas are quickly building
behind the front with seas ranging 12 to 15 in the NW Gulf. The 12
ft seas extend likely as far south as Tampico, Mexico. Storm
force winds will begin off the coast of Veracruz this afternoon as
the front continues moving south with seas building to near 16
ft. Storm force winds will end this evening, but gale force winds
will continue across the southwest Gulf through tonight. Strong
winds across the Gulf will diminish by Monday with seas subsiding
below 8 ft by Tue.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off
the Florida coast tonight. The front will extend from 31N77W to
Melbourne, FL by tonight and from 31N71W to central Cuba by Mon
night. Gale force winds will develop on both sides of the front N
of 29N tonight and end by Mon as the front begins to weaken. Rough
seas to 11 ft can be expected behind the front. As the front
weakens, strong winds will diminish by Mon afternoon. Rough seas
will continue to linger across waters W of 67W through midweek as
the next system moves across the Atlantic.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts Forecasts, issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on
these Special Features...

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to
05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N
between 14W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information about the
Storm Warning in the SW Gulf.

An impressive squall line stretches across the eastern and
central Gulf of Mexico with dangerous marine conditions due to
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and likely localized rough
seas. Behind the front, strong high pressure is building across
the NW Gulf. Ahead of the front and squall line, fresh to
locally strong SW winds are occurring with gentle to moderate S
to SW winds across the rest of the southeast Gulf. Seas are 3 to
5 ft in across the eastern and southern Gulf according to buoys.

For the forecast, the wide band of showers and thunderstorms is
associated with the front forecast to reach from Cedar Key, FL
to Merida, Mexico in the NW Yucatan peninsula this evening, and
exit the basin Mon morning. Strong to gale force winds are
expected behind the front across the western Gulf, from offshore
Texas southward to the Bay of Campeche through this evening.
Minimal storm force NW winds are expected offshore off the
Veracruz area this afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 14
to 16 ft with the strongest winds. In the eastern and central
Gulf, strong to near-gale force winds will follow the front.
Winds and seas will gradually subside across the basin late Mon.
Looking ahead, the aforementioned front may stall across the
western Atlantic and NW Caribbean early this week, before moving
back northward as a warm front toward the middle of week. The
pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the
area and lower pressure associated with the warm front may
induce strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very
rough seas across the northern Gulf towards the end of the work
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure from the central Atlantic stretches across the
northern Caribbean. Thunderstorms are noted off the Nicaragua
coast but otherwise, no significant convection is noted at this
time. The pressure gradient between lower pressure along the
coast of Colombia and the high pressure north of the basin is
leading to fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are occurring in the eastern
Caribbean. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft extend across the central and
portions of the eastern Caribbean between 65W and 82W. Seas are 6
to 7 ft near the Lesser Antilles. In the NW Caribbean, moderate
trade winds prevail with seas 5 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the area will
continue to bring a large area of strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean Sea through tonight. The aerial extent of the
trades will diminish on Mon as a cold front reaches the NW
Caribbean. Fresh N to NE winds with seas building to 9 to 11 ft in
the Yucatan Channel will follow the front. The front will stall
over the NW Caribbean early in the week before retreating back
north of the basin as a warm front by mid-week. Strengthening high
pressure in the wake of the front will bring again a large a area
of fresh to strong trade winds Tue night into Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas in association with a
cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight.

The strong cold front that will bring gale force winds to the
Atlantic coast is still west of the area in the the Gulf of
Mexico. In response, fresh to locally strong SE winds prevail
across the southwest N Atlantic, particularly off the Florida
coast. Buoy data show seas ranging 4 to 6 ft off the coast of
Florida and W of 65W. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds
prevail across the southern Bahama and Turks and Caicos.

Across the central Atlantic, surface ridging stretches across
the area anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure near 36N60W. The
latest scatterometer depicts moderate to fresh NE to E winds
across the region. Seas range 5 to 9 ft. A stationary front
extends from 31N34W to 22N48W. Behind this front, moderate to
fresh N to NE winds prevail with gentle to moderate E to SE
winds ahead of it. Seas range 8 to 11 ft across the central and
western Atlantic, from the Windward Passage southward to the
Lesser Antilles, N of 14N and and as far east as 28W.

In the eastern Atlantic, high pressure also extends across the
area leading to benign conditions. Gentle to moderate E to NE
winds prevail with seas 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, by this afternoon, fresh to strong
southerly flow will set up over the waters E of NE Florida to
about 70W in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is
expected to move into the NW forecast waters this evening.
Strong to near-gale force winds are likely on both sides of the
front, with brief gales possible tonight N of 29N between NE
Florida and 73W. Seas will build ahead and behind the cold
front. The front is forecast to stall late Mon night from
Bermuda to central Cuba. By mid-week, the front is expected to
lift N as a warm front. The pressure gradient between very
strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure
associated with the warm front may induce strong NE to E winds
with higher gusts and building seas to the east of Florida by
mid- week. Gale conditions are possible toward the end of the
work-week.

$$
AReinhart
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