[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning:

A strong cold front is moving across the NW Gulf followed by
strong to gale-force northerly winds and a line of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The front will move SE and stretch
from Florida to the Bay of Campeche tonight, then move SE of the
region on Mon. Gales following the front will remain W of 94W,
spreading S into the Bay of Campeche this afternoon where winds
will reach storm-force offshore Veracruz. Winds of storm-force
will be short-lived as they are forecast to end by the early
evening hours. However, gale conditions will continue thereafter
through early Mon. Rough seas will be between 12 to 16 ft, and are
forecast to fall below 8 ft Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the SE
U.S. coast tonight, then slide east across the waters early next
week. Gales will develop on both sides of the front N of 29N and W
of 75W tonight into Mon, before the front begins to weaken and
winds decrease some. Seas ahead of the front will reach 7 to 9 ft,
with 8 to 11 ft seas behind the front.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts Forecasts, issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on these
Special Features...

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ is
observed from 06N18W to 06N34W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 22W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front extends from SE Louisiana SW to 25N97W in NE
Mexico. Strong to gale-force N to NW winds follow the front with
rough seas to 9 ft, but rapidly building.

The front will reach from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico in the
NW Yucatan peninsula this evening, and exit the basin Mon
morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the front
across the western Gulf, from offshore Texas southward to the Bay
of Campeche through this evening. Minimal storm force NW winds are
expected offshore of the Veracruz area this afternoon. Seas are
forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft with the strongest winds. In the
eastern and central Gulf, strong to near-gale force winds will
follow the front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
accompany the front as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds
and seas will gradually subside across the basin late Mon. Looking
ahead, the aforementioned front may stall across the western
Atlantic and NW Caribbean early next week, before moving back
northward as a warm front toward the middle of next week. The
pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the
area and lower pressure associated with the warm front may induce
strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas
across the northern Gulf by the middle of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trade wind regime enhanced by a tight pressure gradient
between high pressure in the subtropics and lower pressure in
the tropics is leading to mainly dry conditions across the basin
with strong NE to E winds over the central basin. Fresh to
locally strong winds prevail in the eastern basin, with mainly
moderate to fresh winds in the west. Seas are 9 to 11 ft in the
central basin as well as downwind in the SW Caribbean. Seas in the
eastern Caribbean area 6 to 9 ft and in the NW basin, seas range
from 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward
Passage will continue through tonight, and the large area of
strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central and
portions of the SW Caribbean Sea will continue through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong trades in the E Caribbean will
diminish to moderate to fresh Sun. However, by Wed a low may
develop over the central subtropical Atlantic waters, and a
tight pressure gradient will develop, leading to a return of
fresh to strong winds across the E basin Tue night into Thu.
Looking ahead, the next cold front will enter the northwest
Caribbean early Mon, followed by fresh N to NE winds with seas
building to 8 to 11 ft in the Yucatan Channel. The front will
stall over the NW Caribbean early in the week before retreating
back north of the basin as a warm front by mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas in association with a
cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Sun night.

A cold front enters the area near 31N35W and extends to 27N45W
where the boundary is stationary and weakening, stretching to
the Turks and Caicos islands. High pressure situated offshore of
the mid-Atlantic states is supporting a large swath of fresh
NE-E winds behind the front, noted in the latest scatterometer
pass. Seas range from 6 to 10 ft. Locally strong winds are noted
south of 24N, including within the Caribbean passages, where
seas are 8 to 11 ft. Winds shift southerly around the ridge west
of 77W and north of 27N, where seas are around 4 ft. Across the
remainder of the basin, moderate to fresh trades with mainly 5
to 7 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient
between strong high pressure along 31N and lower pressure
associated with the dissipating front will continue to produce
fresh to strong NE to E trade winds south of 24N through Sun. On
Sun, fresh to strong southerly flow will set up over the waters
east of northeast Florida to about 70W in advance of the next
cold front. This cold front is expected to move into the NW
forecast waters late Sun. Strong to near-gale force winds are
likely on both sides of the front, with brief gales possible Sun
night N of 29N between NE Florida and 73W. Seas will build ahead
and behind the cold front. The front is forecast to stall late Mon
night from Bermuda to central Cuba. By mid-week, the front is
expected to lift N as a warm front. The pressure gradient between
very strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure
associated with the warm front may induce fresh to strong NE to E
winds and building seas to the east of Florida by mid-week

$$
Ramos
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