[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Dec 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Atlantic Ocean Swell...

A cold front extends from 31N50W to 23N65W to Dominican Republic.
Convection associated with this front has diminished today. Gales
on both sides of the boundary have now lifted N of 31N, leaving a
zone of strong SW winds E of the front N of 26N and W of 40W, and
strong NW winds W of the front N of 28W and E of 50W. This winds
should continue to gradually decreasing from S to N tonight.
However, a broad area of rough seas exist in mainly NW swell
generated from the earlier gales. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are present
N of 25N between 40W and 70W. These seas will slowly decay, but
some areas S of 31N will continue to experience seas in excess of
12 ft through at least Fri night.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to
05N24W to 03N30W to 04N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N to 06N between 34W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved SE of the area this afternoon. A surface
trough is noted in the western Bay of Campeche about 60 nm
offshore, extending NW to just S of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the SW Gulf of Mexico in
association with this trough. High pressure generally prevails
across the remainder of the basin. Winds are generally gentle and
easterly, although moderate E winds prevail in and near the
Florida Straits. Moderate SE flow is also increasing in the NW
Gulf, N of 23N and W of 95W. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the northern
Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in the southern Gulf. Seas locally to 6 ft are
ongoing in the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, high pressure will shift eastward into the
Atlantic tonight, inducing moderate to locally fresh return flow
across most of the basin Fri through Sat. A strong cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will reach
from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by Sun
morning, and from near Fort Myers, Florida to Ne Yucatan
peninsula Sun night, and exit the basin by Mon morning. Strong to
gale force winds are expected behind the front, with gale force
winds possible across the western Gulf, from offshore southern
Texas southward to the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun
evening. Strong NW gales to near storm-force winds are possible
offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak cold front extends from Dominican Republic to Honduras.
Scattered moderate convection associated with this front is noted
along the coast of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE winds are behind
the front, with locally strong winds the the Windward Passage
extending S to offshore eastern Jamaica. Seas behind the front
are 4 to 7 ft, highest in the Windward Passage. In the eastern
basin, a surface trough is noted along 64W from S of the Virgin
Islands to just N of Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is
noted E of this trough over the SE Caribbean and adjacent Windward
Islands.

To the E of the aforementioned cold front, moderate to fresh
trades dominate in the central, eastern, and SW basin. Strong
winds are pulsing offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 8 ft where the strong winds are noted
in the southern basin.

For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary through
Fri while weakening. Fresh to strong NE winds W of the front
across the northwest Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras,
will diminish by tonight. Pulsing fresh to locally strong NE winds
are expected in the Windward Passage through Sat. Strengthening
high pressure N of area will bring an increase in the aerial
extent of the fresh to strong trade winds during the upcoming
weekend, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia.
Looking ahead, the next cold front could enter the northwest
Caribbean on Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about
very rough seas in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from near 31N50W to Dominican Republic. W of
the front, moderate to fresh N winds gradually diminish to light
to gentle N of 25N and W of 75W, as high pressure centered over
the SE U.S. builds into the NW waters. E of the front, a ridge
axis, associated with high pressure centered near the Canary
Islands, extends SW to just N of the Leeward Islands, inducing a
corridor of light to gentle winds N of a line from 31N20W to
18N60W. To the S of this axis, moderate to fresh trades dominate.

A large area of NW swell is leading to seas of greater than 8 ft N
of a line from 31N20W to 25N50W to 20N72W. W of the these rough
seas, 5 to 7 ft seas extend N of the Bahamas and continue to the
near the SE U.S. coast. To the S of the rough seas, 4 to 7 ft seas
dominate, except for a zone of 6 to 8 ft S of 10N between 35W and
South America, where the highest tradewinds are observed. Most of
the basin is dry, but an area of scattered moderate convection
exists within 300 nm E of the Windward Islands, in the vicinity of
a mid and upper level trough.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will become stationary along
21N by Sat. Strengthening high pressure N of area will push the
front farther south on Sun reaching the northern Leeward Islands
as a dissipating front. The gale force winds and high seas
associated with the front are shifting E of area. The gradient
between the strong high pressure along 31N and lower pressure
associated with the stalled front will induce fresh to strong NE
to E trade winds south of 23N Fri through Sun. On Sun, fresh to
strong southerly flow will set up over the waters east of
northeast Florida to about 70W in advance of the next cold front.
This cold front is expected to move into the NW forecast waters
late Sun, followed by fresh to strong northwest winds. Seas will
build both east and west of this cold front.

$$
Konarik
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