[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Dec 07 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A first Atlantic Ocean cold front now passes through
31N55W, to 26N60W 20N70W, through NW Haiti and Jamaica,
to the Gulf of Honduras. A second cold front is about
210 nm to the north and northwest of the first cold
front. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate to widely scattered strong,
are to the northwest of the line 31N51W 23N60W 20N66W.
Expect: gale-force SW winds, and sea heights that range
from 12 feet to 16 feet, from 29N northward between the
first cold front and the line 31N50W 29N55W. A second area
of importance is: gale-force W to NW winds, and sea heights
that will range from 12 feet to 18 feet in NW swell, from
29N northward between the first front and 60W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the
Offshores Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N16W, to 05N22W 04N26W 03N30W 04N43W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N
to 06N between 39W and 44W. An upper level trough extends
from a 25N17W cyclonic circulation center, to 14N30W and
14N60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 03N to 15N between 44W and 62W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An east-to-west oriented cold front is along 23N, passing
along the NW coast of Cuba, to 23N89W in the south central
Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough passes through the NW part
of Guatemala and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, to 21N97W along the coast of Mexico. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate
to locally strong, cover the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate seas are in the southern half of the Gulf. Slight
seas are in the northern half of the Gulf. Mostly moderate
to some fresh NE winds are in the SE and south central
sections. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere.

Strong high pressure centered over the southeastern
United States dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or
weaker winds will prevail today. The high pressure will
shift eastward into the Atlantic tonight, inducing
moderate to locally fresh return flow across most of
the basin Fri through Sat. A strong cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. The front
will reach from Cedar Key, Florida to Cancun, Mexico
Sun evening, and exit the basin by Mon morning.
Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the
front, with gale force winds possible across the
western Gulf, from offshore southern Texas southward
to the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun evening.
Strong NW gales to near storm-force winds are
possible offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through NW Haiti and Jamaica,
to the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly fresh to some strong
northerly winds are from the cold front northward from
80W westward. Strong NE winds are within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W.

Fresh to strong NE winds are within 150 nm to 210 nm
of the coast of Colombia. Fresh NE winds are in the
rest of the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea.
Moderate and fresh NE winds are in the eastern
one-third of the area. The comparatively highest sea
heights, 8 feet, are off the coast of Colombia near
11N75W. Moderate seas are in the offshore waters of
Central America from the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea to the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Slight
seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough is along 63W/64W, from 18N southward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 17N between 60W and 70W. This trough has been
moving westward during the last few days, from the
Atlantic Ocean into the SE Caribbean Sea.

Shallow patches of moisture are supporting isolated
showers throughout the area. The monsoon trough is
along 09N/10N from 75W, westward, beyond western
Panama and southern Costa Rica. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 13N southward
from 73W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time
period that ended at 07/1200 UTC, are: 1.18 in Trinidad,
and 0.24 in Bermuda, according to the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to the
Gulf of Honduras. The front will reach from the N coast
of Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras tonight, where it
will remain nearly stationary through Fri night before
dissipating Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds N of the front
across the northwest Caribbean will diminish slightly
late today. However, strong winds will develop in the
Windward Passage this afternoon with the front and
expand across most of the east and central Caribbean,
lasting from tonight through Sun. By late Sun, the
majority of these winds are expected to be over the
central Caribbean. Looking ahead, the next cold front
could enter the northwest Caribbean by early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Atlantic Ocean cold front, and the accompanying
gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas.

A surface ridge is along 33N13W, to a 31N24W 1026 mb
high pressure center, to a 27N41W 1020 mb high pressure
center, to 27N40W and 19N62W.

Fresh to strong NW winds are from 65W westward. Strong or
faster winds are to the north of the line 31N39W 25N50W
23N65W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 20N
to 27N from 27W eastward; and from 20N southward between
30W and 55W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough to very rough seas are to the
north of the line 31N36W 27N49W 25N58W 24N70W 24N75W.
Moderate to rough seas are from 05N to 15N between 39W
and 60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from near 31N55W to the Windward
passage. A secondary cold front trails it, extending from
31N58W to the central Bahamas. The secondary front will
speed up and merge with the first front by late today.
The main front will reach from near 25N55W to the N coast
of Hispaniola this evening. Gale force winds and high seas
are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the
north of 29N between 55W and 60W through late this
afternoon. The gale winds will shift east of 60W by
this afternoon. The front will stall and weaken along
20N Fri through Sat as strong high pressure builds
across the western Atlantic. The gradient between the
strong high pressure along 31N and lower pressure
associated with the stalled front will induce
fresh to strong NE to E trade winds south of 23N
Fri through Sun. On Sun, the front will dissipate
as fresh to strong southerly flow sets up over the
waters east of northeast Florida to about 70W in
advance of the next cold front. This cold front
is expected to move into the NW forecast waters
late Sun, followed by fresh to strong northwest
winds. Seas will build both east and west of
this cold front.

$$
mt/gr
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