[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062220 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Dec 06 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A first western Atlantic Ocean cold front now passes
through 31N71W. A second cold front now passes through
31N80W. The fronts will merge in about 30 hours to
36 hours. That merged front will pass through 31N45W
toward the Bahamas in about 48 hours. Gale-force W to
NW winds, and rough seas, are forecast to develop in
about 6 hours, from 29N northward between 70W and 76W.
Gale-force W to NW winds, and very rough seas, will
cover the areas that are from 27N northward between
57W and 63W, in about 24 hours. The gale-force
winds will end in about 36 hours. Rough to very rough
seas in W to NW swell will continue at 36 hours from
28N northward between 48W and 59W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the
Offshores Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
borders of Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 04N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N22W, to 03N40W 04N40W 04N45W. A surface
trough is along 54W/55W, from 07N to 14N. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N
to 12N between 33W and 50W. An upper level trough extends
from a 24N24W cyclonic circulation center, to 17N30W and
13N60W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are to the
east and the southeast of the line 31N23W 20N25W 19N40W
16N60W. A dissipating cold front passes through 31N10W
in Africa, to 22N20W 16N35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Mostly fresh to some strong northerly winds are from 24N
southward from 91W westward. Mostly moderate to some rough
seas are from 23N southward from 90W westward. Slight seas
are in the NW corner of the area. Slight to mostly moderate
seas cover the rest of the area.

A cold front extends from NW Cuba to 22N86W, where it
continues as a stationary front to weak low pressure of
1017 mb in the south-central Bay of Campeche near 19N94W.
The front will move SE and enter the NW Caribbean late
this morning, accompanied by fresh to strong winds.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to persist
along the coast near Veracruz, Mexico through today.
Strong NE winds will expand across the Bay of Campeche
this afternoon before diminishing tonight. High pressure
behind the front will shift eastward into the Atlantic
Thu night, inducing moderate to fresh return flow across
most of the basin Fri through Sat, ahead of the next
cold front that is forecast to enter the NW Gulf
Sat evening. Strong to near-gale force winds are likely
behind the front, with gale force winds possible in the
SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong NE winds have been from 16N southward between 70W
and 78W during the late night and early morning hours of
today. Fresh easterly winds are in the eastern one-third
of the area. Fresh to moderate NE winds are elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to rough seas are in parts of
the SW corner of the area, in the waters that are from 15N
southward between Colombia and Panama. Moderate seas are
elsewhere from 17N southward from 83W eastward. Slight
seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Shallow patches of moisture are supporting isolated showers
throughout the area. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N
from 75W, westward, beyond western Panama and southern Costa
Rica.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period
that ended at 06/1200 UTC, are: 0.28 in Guadeloupe, and
0.17 in Trinidad, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Large NE swell is expected to continue across the Tropical
N Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles
through Thu. A cold front will move into the northwestern
Caribbean this morning, reach from the N coast of Hispaniola
to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night, where it will remain
nearly stationary through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds
are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front
across the Yucatan Channel and in the lee of Cuba tonight.
Strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage
Thu evening with the front and expand across most
of the east and central Caribbean by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the cold fronts that are in the western Atlantic
Ocean now. A resulting merged frontal boundary will
reach 31N45W 19N71W by 48 hours. Expect gale-force winds,
and rough to very rough seas, in parts of the central
Atlantic Ocean and the western Atlantic Ocean, during
the next 36 hours to 48 hours or so. Fresh to strong
NW winds are from 25N northward from 72W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 34N16W 1021 mb high
pressure center, to a 27N41W 1020 mb high pressure
center, to 23N66W.

Moderate to rough seas are from 18N southward between
40W and 60W; and from 28N northward between 30W and 60W.
A surface trough is along 54W/55W, from 07N to 14N.
Strong to near gale-force easterly winds are within 180 nm
to the east of the surface trough. Mostly fresh to some
strong NE winds are from 20N southward between 35W and
60W. Fresh SW winds are to the north of 31N37W 26N51W
23N70W. Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas are
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from near 31N71W to 25N76W and to
central Cuba. The front will move SE and reach from
near 31N62W to eastern Cuba by this evening, then
weaken from near 31N49W to the N coast of Hispaniola
Thu evening. Gale-force winds and high seas are
expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the
north of 28N from this afternoon through Thu evening.
The front will stall along 20N Fri through Sat as
strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

$$
MT/JA
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